The AUD has been in demand for most of the week, mainly due to stabilising RBA monetary policy expectations and improving global risk sentiment. Even though the RBA left monetary policy unchanged, it still left open all options regarding additional policy action later on. As such, incoming data should have a heightened impact on investors’ central bank rate expectations.
In that respect next week’s employment data will be closely watched. In an environment of muted external demand conditions it appears unlikely that the corporate sector’s hiring activity increased in September. As such it is likely that next week’s data will disappoint.
Elsewhere, caution is warranted when it comes to global risk sentiment. While Fed rate expectations are unlikely to fall further from the current levels, next week’s Chinese trade and inflation data may provide further fuel for risk aversion.
We remain in favour of selling current AUD rallies.
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