By analysing how speculative accounts have positioned themselves lately and how EUR/USD has fallen since mid-Oct, it is evident that market actors are buying the rumour of diverging monetary policy with additional ECB stimulus as well as a Fed hike in December, notes SEB Group. 
"As “buy the rumour-sell the fact” is a common behavioural phenomenon, this is a contrarian signal for EUR/USD past the Fed rate decision.
Such an outcome would be in line with the general pattern around the start of Fed rate hike cycles. But it also indicates a significant risk for a “short squeeze” should the central banks dodge expectations," SEB argues.
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