The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: The March support line up for grabs. The past week and a half the market has been consolidating in a contracting range, a bear triangle (as it was entered from above). The five wave pattern (a-e) that constitutes a triangle is now about to be completed (best seen in an hourly graph) and as such a downside exit should be expected within shortly. Look for a bounce towards the high 1.11’s to finalize the triangle. Thereafter a drop down to the March support line, the floor of the half-year long bear flag will take place.
GBP/USD: Making way lower. For several days the market has been battling over the 1.5170 support but with yesterday’s bearish key day reversal candle (here seen as a downside continuation pattern) the battle now seems over and bears being victorious. Fresh trend lows should hence follow and there’s unless a small support at 1.5088, not much standing in the way until the 1.4850-area. Should however a reaction higher occur it will most likely be limited to the 1.5250/90 area.
EUR/JPY: Another test lower underway. The rather bearish candle printed yesterday has clearly increased downside pressure and a new attempt below the old 133.10 B-wave low should come as a result of it. For today the current minor bounce should ideally end (or already having ended) at 137.26. A following break below 133.78 will confirm the next step lower.
S&P500: Challenging overhead resistance. A dynamic zone of resistance at 1.936\1,970 looks ripe for a test after some near-term bullish development. In this area, an interesting 1,950 ref is also found, which if broken would be a bullish sign from a wave structure perspective. Midbody support is located at 1,983. Current intraday stretches are however located at 1,875 & 1,924 (with the upper end being a problem to an immediate take-off).
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