The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index, EUR/USD, and US 10-year yield as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD index: Temporary or lasting halt at Fibo. The drop accelerated below the "Cloud"/low end of the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band, now acting as resistance together with old lows in the low-96s. But the fallout was halted at a double 127.2% Fibo extension ref level at 94.65. If this is nothing but a short shallow consolidation before dropping further to test 93.60/15 next, a rather nasty monthly candle would unfold which will take time and some sweat to deal with.
EUR/USD: Bears were all pinned down. With no selling opportunity materializing at primary short term resistance (in the high-1.09s/mid-l.10s, now support), there was just no argument to shorten yesterday. An ascending "Pivot" and a short-term 161.8% Fibo projection ref finally put an end to intraday advance, but if not holding under 1.1190, extension to 1.1270\1.1305 must also be penciled in. So a bearish case should still be rested until better proof shows that buying is abating.
U.S. 10y yield: A 2.16% target remains in play. A short-term inverted "Head & shoulders" formation hosts an ideal 2.16% objective. The market stopped at two separate 127.2% Fibo extension refs converging at 2.07\08%, but this doesn't change much other than in a very near-term timeframe perspective. To counter the "Head & shoulders" implications a drop back below at least 1.89% is needed.
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