The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CAD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Probably more upside potential. The correction continues to make way north and there’s probably more to come near term given the overlapping of the 31 Mar low point, 1.0713. One rather likely alternative is that we are creating a bear triangle and as such prices should rise closer to 1.0940 before stalling (even though 1.0798, the mid body point of last week’s falling benchmark candle also is a viable target).
USD/JPY: Walking a thin line. Both yesterday and today (so far…) the 118.71 key support has survived downside tests (but for how long?). The latest bounce from 118.33 (Mar 26) looks clearly corrective to us and hence impose a clear threat of break lower. Also the since early March persisting bearish MACD divergence (following the false break above 121.86) is a fact that suggests we’re due for possible a more profound setback.
GBP/USD: Another 55d ma band test is due. The sellers has clearly lost the initiative with the latest break lower attracting few if any follow through sellers. Also the bullish divergence in MACD warns that selling has been overextended. So most factors short term pointing north and a bounce back to the 55d ma band will probably be seen over the coming week.
USD/CAD: A correctional “Double Zigzag”. Recent losses alters an earlier straight “A-B-C” correction into a thought more complex “Double Zigzag” (which repeats the “A-B-C” twice before it’s completed. There are Fibo attraction/support below from 1.2245 and lower to consider in this move once the lower end of the cloud 8at market) gives way. Resistance is likely strong in the 1.2385\1.2510-area and only over 1.2667 would end the sequence of lower highs and lower lows to resume the trend.
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