The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and EUR/CHF as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Testing support at 1.0900/1.0883. Below which 1.0804 or even 1.0768/61 would be exposed - after the potentially bearish candle that was added yesterday. To lessen the influence of this print, a move back through micro-term resistance at 1.0945 is needed - but then sight back on recent peaks at 1.1030 & 1.1063. Current intraday stretches are somewhat out of focus while spread out at 1.0820 & 1.1035 and spot trades half way between those.
AUD/USD: A bearish 'Doji' candle at resistance. Hesitation above a late Feb high of 0.97941 and in the high end of the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band resulted in potentially short-term bearish 'Doji' candle. The short-term stretch, as defined by the distance to the monthly average, likely also play a role in this potential change in sentiment. But action back below the ( Fibo-adjusted) 21day 'Kijun-Sen' (0.7750) is needed to start exposing the sub-0.76 lows again.
NZD/USD: end of the correction? If this is a normal bear market correction, a three wave (a-b-c) three wave correction well then we are likely at the turning point (actually a few points above it, 0.7634). Yesterday's doji candle shows lack of interest buying the break higher and if followed by a net down candle today we see the correction as having ended. A false break up from a 'box' is also often followed by an impulsive move in the opposite direction. Breaking 0.7623 will be the first shorter sell signal.
EUR/CHF: Accelerating the decline. Since the rejection from the bearishly sloped 55d ma band, the bearish key day reversal on Mar 19, the pair after a minor congestion yesterday accelerated its decline. The bounce from beneath the channel will likely be sold into no later than 1.0520/30 and thereafter the pair is seen continuing lower aiming next at the 1.0400-area.
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