The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and AUD/NZD as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Quo vadis? Since a few days the market is established below the lower boundary of the triangle but annoyingly without downside follow through. So far bids below 1.13 have repeatedly (see the downside spikes) been preventing the market from breaking below the 1.1262 key support (and barrier to a new trend low). To get any directional input the market must at least move above 1.1450 or fall below 1.1262.
USD/JPY: Still looking for lower prices. The false upside break, the up-thrust top still calls for the market to try lower levels. The very slow recovery from yesterday’s low point, 118.62, also indicates that the market should be vulnerable to renewed selling. So if our assumption is right selling should resume basically here and now calling for next a move down to 118.30 and/or 118.10.
USD/CAD: Triangle - make or break? If the past month’s consolidation is a bullish triangle, which has been and still is our working assumption, then the market should/must step up to the plate and start buying the pair ahead of the c-wave low, 1.2360, or an alternate wave count must be implemented (opening up for 1.2248). The best fitted pattern will be a drop below 1.2395 and then turning higher (without having violated 1.2360).
AUD/NZD: Correctional peak likely in place. The favored 1.0490\10 correctional objective was missed with a tiny margin before selling resumed and knocked the cross back lower. So a correctional high is most likely in place, a sub-1.0350 drop is all that is needed to confirm this – and then with a fresh low (<1.0300) at hand. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0365 & 1.0470 (but this cross has a nasty habit of hugging one or the other and only post minor rejections on the way down (or up)).
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