The following are the latest technical setups for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD as provided by the technical strategy team at Credit Suisse.
EUR/USD: EURUSD continue to hold above the 1.2624/05 price lows. While above here the near-term recovery can stay intact. Above 1.2888 is needed to aim at 1.2902. Major resistance remain seen at 1.2996/3001 – the mid-September pivot high, the 38.2% retracement of the June/October fall and the falling 55-day average. We would look for a cap at the latter and attempt to turn lower again.
Support moves to 1.2734 with a break of 1.2624/05 needed to turn the trend lower again.
CS holds a long EUR/USD targeting 1.2990 with a stop at 1.2605.
USD/JPY: USDJPY has staged a slight recovery, but while still capped below price resistance at 107.50/58, we view this as a corrective move. We thus stay bias lower and look for a move towards 105.19 at first, ahead of price and 61.8% retracement support at 104.69/36. Below here can then see an extension of weakness for 103.50, followed by the price and 200-day average support at 103.24/09, which we would expect to offer better support.
Above 107.50/58 though is needed to ease the near-term bearish outlook.
CS is currently flat on USD/JPY.
GBP/USD: GBPUSD has extended its rebound up to price and trendline/wedge resistance at 1.6112/28. Selling is expected here. However, with a constructive momentum backdrop we look for an extension above it test the falling 21-day average at 1.6162. Above here is needed to challenge a more important price pivot at 1.6228. Extension above the latter is needed test the 38.2% retracement barrier at 1.6378.
A break below 1.5854 would expose the top of the medium-term base and 61.8% retracement of the 2013/2014 uptrend at 1.5752/22. We would look for an attempt to find a better floor here.
CS holds a long GBP/USD from 1.6030 targeting 6382.
AUD/USD: AUDUSD has continued to trade in a broad sideways range. Support shows at .8735 initially, followed by .8687/76. A break below here is needed to revisit the .8652/43 support zone – the recent lows and 38.2% retracement of the entire 2001/2011 bull market. – which we would look to hold.
Immediate resistance shows at .8861, above which would turn the key focus on .8900/33 where we would look to ideally cap any further strength for a turn lower. A break above .8933 though – the 38.2% retracement of the collapse from early September – can resolve the range higher for strength towards .8973.
CS runs a limit order to sell AUD/USD at 0.8875 targeting 0.8680.
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