While still early to call, latest polls continue to suggest a small margin in favour of a ‘No’ vote from yesterday’s Scottish Independence Referendum. As we have suggested in recent posts, we expect the (still) large proportion of undecided voters to swing in favour of the ‘No’ with GBP undergoing a substantial relief rally.
From a GBP/USD perspective, this should see the pair trading above the September 1st close of 1.6605. If however our prediction proves incorrect and a ‘Yes’ outcome is forthcoming, we expect and abrupt fall with the pair ending Friday trading around 1.56–a significant intraday fall by historic standards.
Readers however should however, a Scottish ‘No’ is not a vote for the status quo and as such, some uncertainty will remain limiting to gains reflecting in our recent forecast profile updates.
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