The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, and S&P500 as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: A new still in the making. The bear triangle yesterday traced out the last sub wave, the e-wave, and should hence now stand ready to plunge lower to a fresh low. The triangle’s theoretical target is roughly in the mid 1.32’s but anything below 1.3333 will fulfill the minimum requirement for a completed move. Following the new trend low there’s a mounting risk of a reaction back to the triangle’s high area, 1.3416/33.
USD/JPY: Should soon roll over lower. Yesterday’s spinning top and an hourly five wave pattern lower both suggest that we might have seen the reaction high yesterday. For today we see a break of 102.43 to increase downside pressure and below 102.30 downside pressure will be further mounting.
AUD/NZD: Near a downside turnaround. The past week’s range trading has created a pattern that can either be a bullish continuation pattern (for the last move up to the flag ceiling, 1.11-ish) or a head and shoulders top (confirming a slightly premature ending to the July/Aug rise). So it should be worth keeping a close eye at the cross in order to time a short position. So either looking to sell a break of 1.0925 (the head and shoulders case) or toward the upper boundary of the eight month long bear flag.
S&P 500: Stronger than expected bounce. The buying continued also yesterday and we have now arrived at the high end of the 55d ma band, an area that is expected to cap further advance and instead giving way to a new round of weakness. So watch out for bearish signs, primarily in the 1954/57 area.
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