The following are the intraday outlooks for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/NZD and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
EUR/USD: Sitting on the wedge floor. Despite the move down to a fresh trend low indicators such as MACD and stochastic continues (MACD has repeatedly been doing so since the Oct low point, the end of wave 3) to show a bullish divergence indicating a descent under a slowing momentum. Short term it looks like we’re creating a narrow range on top of the wedge floor so unless moving above 1.2256 the most likely outcome will be another low.
USD/JPY: Capped by the 78.6% Fibo resistance. The fact that we’re repeatedly been capped by the 78.6% Fibo resistance is supportive to t.he view that we probably will be creating a wave four triangle. As such the market should soon turn the corner for a setback ideally targeting the 78.6% Fibo support point (of the latest rise) at 116.68 before turning higher.
AUD/NZD: Final step lower underway. The cross continues to make way lower and we are now getting within striking distance to our primary long term goal, the 1988 floor line at 1.0385. Since mid Dec the market is also moving south in kind of a wedge formation, a common ending pattern so we should certainly have some readiness to cover shorts on a dip below 1.04.
BRENT CRUDE: In the search of a final low. Several interesting signs are now gathering. Firstly we apparently have a bear triangle at hand but as triangles normally occurs as the last congestion before printing a more lasting peak/trough we should stand ready to close shorts at a new trend low. Secondly the above scenario is well underpinned by a possible stochastic divergence and a MACD crossover. So all in all look to buy into a new low (the triangle’s theoretical target is 54.10).
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