Focus of the day:
"The rapidity of EURUSD’s slide in the past few months has provoked contemplation of how much further it can go and at what pace. Developments in the euro area have only increased our conviction in our call for a more rapid and sustained depreciation of the EUR. One of the key reasons we had to expect a rapid decline was our belief that markets were near a tipping point where a broad consensus of participants would see EUR depreciation as the overwhelmingly likely outcome and, given the European Central Bank’s (ECB) introduction of negative interest rates, would have an incentive to hedge EUR exposures en masse.
Indeed, while we maintain our forecasts for a steep path of EUR descent in the year ahead, the euro area’s difficult economic situation and increased signs of market unease with the euro area outlook suggest that the distribution of risks now may be even more skewed towards lower EUR exchange rates. The three most likely scenarios for the EUR all involve much greater downside, for at least the next 6-12 months, and in a couple less likely scenarios, a resurgence of the EUR, particularly if it were significant, would signal an unstable equilibrium, in our view, that would only lead to greater EUR downside at longer horizons."
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"The rapidity of EURUSD’s slide in the past few months has provoked contemplation of how much further it can go and at what pace. Developments in the euro area have only increased our conviction in our call for a more rapid and sustained depreciation of the EUR. One of the key reasons we had to expect a rapid decline was our belief that markets were near a tipping point where a broad consensus of participants would see EUR depreciation as the overwhelmingly likely outcome and, given the European Central Bank’s (ECB) introduction of negative interest rates, would have an incentive to hedge EUR exposures en masse.
Indeed, while we maintain our forecasts for a steep path of EUR descent in the year ahead, the euro area’s difficult economic situation and increased signs of market unease with the euro area outlook suggest that the distribution of risks now may be even more skewed towards lower EUR exchange rates. The three most likely scenarios for the EUR all involve much greater downside, for at least the next 6-12 months, and in a couple less likely scenarios, a resurgence of the EUR, particularly if it were significant, would signal an unstable equilibrium, in our view, that would only lead to greater EUR downside at longer horizons."
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
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