The following are the intraday outlooks for USD Index (DXY), EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, SP500, and Crude Oil as provided by the technical strategy team at SEB Group.
USD INDEX: Possible rechecking bull flag exit. The slow slide lower is most likely just part and parcel of a minor downside correction and as such we expect it to end at either 85.20 or 85.00, the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibo support points (of the mid October rise). A move above 85.71 will thereafter act as the bull trigger for the rise in wave five.
EUR/USD: It still looks like a bear flag. Even though our call yesterday for a potentially completed upward correction was proven wrong we continue to see the climb as merely a correction to the preceding descent. Resistance above 1.2740 should be firming so we doubt to find strength enough to stray away too far from that area.
EUR/JPY: Homing in on a potential target. With the pair now being in close proximity to the ideal target (if this is an upward correction that is) for the current move higher, 138.07, it is now again time to monitor the near term development. Especially a close today below yesterday’s low point, 136.89, will send a clear and bearish message to us. So look for increasing headwinds as we are approaching 138.07.
S&P 500: Back in the bull camp. Instead of the warned of short term setback the market got its act together and decisively broke and closed above the 55d ma band hence taking the final step in restoring the bullish trend. Yesterday’s candle also become a so called shaven one, a very positive candle with no spikes (= buying from the start and into the closing bell).
BRENT CRUDE. If it’s a triangle it turns at 86.60. We are of course not yet fully certain that the congestion is a bear triangle (a bear flag is still a viable option, targeting 89.17) but the latest findings does imply that we are in the latter stages of a triangle and that the peak probably will be closer to 86.60 than the previously advocated 86.97. We are hence looking for a soon (during the day) downturn.
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