Judging by initial estimates of national accounts, France's economy grew slightly faster than Germany's in the third quarter of 2014, i.e. by 1.4% annualised versus 1.3%. Detailed German figures are not yet available, although indications are that activity was driven mainly by private and public sector consumption. Business investment fell in Germany whereas it continued to rise in France, and at a slightly faster pace than before.

According to economic surveys, the performance gap between France and Germany could continue to narrow between now and year-end. That should not come as a surprise. Germany's economy is very open, with almost 46% of GDP devoted to exports. Together with its exposure to emerging markets and specialisation in industrial capital goods, this makes Germany more sensitive than other countries to the slowdown in international trade, which is affecting the manufacturing sector above all. The French economy is more reliant on services – which account for 79% of business value added and a third of exports - and is naturally less cyclical.

The French economy is often more resilient when global outlook becomes less positive.

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