US
Bye bye QE3
After almost two years, the Fed will exit from quantitative easing. It will however not end its accommodative bias for a long while.
Eurozone
Fall 2014 update on the cyclical environment
Several factors are straining Europe’s cyclical environment. Both growth and inflation will near zero in the months ahead. The ECB will come under increasing pressure to purchase public debt securities, an option that remains politically tricky, without German support.
The EMU opts for a fiscal pause
In 2015, fiscal policy will be virtually neutral in the eurozone. Before disclosing its verdict, the European Commission has asked for additional information about some countries, including France and Italy.
Greece
Recovery in question
Positive growth is insight for Greece. However, the slowdown in the eurozone and Turkey will limit the magnitude of the rebound. More crucially, political uncertainty is increasing. An early election next spring is now the most likely outcome.
Bye bye QE3
After almost two years, the Fed will exit from quantitative easing. It will however not end its accommodative bias for a long while.
Eurozone
Fall 2014 update on the cyclical environment
Several factors are straining Europe’s cyclical environment. Both growth and inflation will near zero in the months ahead. The ECB will come under increasing pressure to purchase public debt securities, an option that remains politically tricky, without German support.
The EMU opts for a fiscal pause
In 2015, fiscal policy will be virtually neutral in the eurozone. Before disclosing its verdict, the European Commission has asked for additional information about some countries, including France and Italy.
Greece
Recovery in question
Positive growth is insight for Greece. However, the slowdown in the eurozone and Turkey will limit the magnitude of the rebound. More crucially, political uncertainty is increasing. An early election next spring is now the most likely outcome.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.