Eurozone avoids the fall in the third quarter

  • France surprises, Germany stays in the race… despite plunging trade with Russia. Euro stabilizes.

Eurozone

Economic weakness and monetary stimulus under debate

  • Eurozone activity surprised on the upside in Q3 with GDP rising by 0.2% with respect to the previous quarter. Yet, the pace of the recovery remains subdued and we do not expect a significant acceleration before the second half of next year. Financial markets have more and more doubts about the ECB ability to reach its inflation target and the pressure is rising for purchasing public debt instruments.

Germany

Soft patch or another recession?

  • Germany is highly dependent on export markets, notably those of Eastern Europe and Asia, and thus has been hit harder than other countries by the deterioration of the global economic environment. Economic and financial sanctions against Russia, its ensuing recession and the slowdown in China are costing Germany dearly.

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