EUR/USD Maintains an Upside Trend Despite Disappointing French PMI


French manufacturing PMI was expected to jump over the critical 50 point mark and reach 50.3 points in October (from 49,8 in September). The 50 point mark separates growth and contraction. However, it disappointed with a drop to 49.4 points. Services PMI was predicted to edge up from 51 to 51.2 points. Also here, the score dropped to 50.2 points, hardly holding on in growth territory. Spain’s unemployment rate was predicted to slide from 26.3% to 26.1% and the actual result was 26% in Q3.

EUR/USD continue to maintain medium term upside bias on EUR despite its pullback threats. Minimum resistance resides at the 1.3710 level, its Feb 01’2013 high.

Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3750 level followed by the 1.3800 level and possibly higher towards the 1.3850 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view.

Conversely, support stands at the 1.3600 level where a breach will target the 1.3500 level followed by the 1.3456 level and then the 1.3321 level.

A cut through here will target the 1.3250 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its upside bias in the medium term.

EUR/USD was already on a roll before the publication, climbing above the round 1.38 line and peaking at 1.3821.The French release weighed on the pair, but it holds above 1.38, at least for now.

Markit releases German PMIs soon. The all-European numbers follow. France is the second largest economy in the euro-zone (and in Europe) after Germany. Spain is ranked fourth in the euro-zone, after Italy. Yesterday, the Bank of Spain estimated a growth rate of 0.1% in Q3, ending the recent round of recession.

One of the factors pushing the euro higher is an improved global sentiment following the release of the Markit / HSBC Flash PMI for China. It rose to 50.9 points and sidelined fears about global growth. The risk on environment helps the common currency.

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