Dollar rally begins to stutter, impacting forex majors

Market Overview

The recent rally on the dollar is beginning to stutter. In a move that is impacting across the major forex currencies, the yen regaining some lost ground is a standout mover. This comes despite the continued comments from Japanese government officials that have been attempting to jawbone the yen lower. However there is an expectation that they would not be willing to act in front of the G7 meeting later this month. The profit taking on this dollar rally is playing out across the forex markets as pairs have begun to consolidate their recent moves, whilst precious metals such as gold have also found support. After a strong move on Wall Street supported by a rebound on oil (S&P 500 up 1.3%), Asian markets have been unable to sustain the momentum and only posted mild gains (Nikkei +0.1%). European markets are mixed around the open.

Fore markets show moves against the dollar, with mild gains on the euro and sterling, and the yen also strengthening. The Kiwi is also a standout performer up over 0.5% after unwinding recent losses.

Traders will be looking out for UK Industrial Production at 0930BST which is expected to improve very slightly to -0.4% for the year. The EIA oil inventories report is at 1530BST and is expected to show only a small build of +1.5m barrels (lower than the +2.8m barrels last week).

 

Chart of the Day – EUR/JPY

The recovery has been taking shape as the yen has continued to weaken over the past few days and has been yet another rally within the downtrend. However rallies continue to be seen as a chance to sell on Euro/Yen with the next selling opportunity could be close, and the overnight losses could mean that it is already forming. The long term downtrend from the December 2014 high is still way up around 128, however there is now a sharper downtrend taken from the January reaction high and this comes in around 125.70 today. There have been a series of old supports that have also played roles in forming the new resistance for the bounces in the past few months and this means that there is a sell-zone now between 125.00/126.15. Momentum indicators retain a negative configuration and the RSI consistently is failing at or just under 60 now (currently just stalling around 50). The falling 89 day moving average (c. 126.00) has also been an excellent basis of resistance to catch the rallies of the past 5 months. However the early slide today has now left resistance at 124.45 and near term support around 123.20/123.50 is being tested. A breach of 123.20 would put the bears back in control once more for a retreat towards the near term pivot at 122.50 and potentially a retest of the low at 121.45.

 

EUR/USD

The slow and gradual decline in the euro has started to consolidate as the momentum in the correction has lost impetus in the past few days. Very small bodies to the last three candles and increasingly short tails (i.e. small daily trading ranges) reflect the lack of direction on the euro at the moment. The momentum indicators are increasingly benign with the RSI around 50 and the Stochastics starting to plateau around neutral. The pair is clearly looking for direction and the next catalyst. This settling is also taking place just above the old pivot level around $1.1330. The intraday hourly chart has moved from what was formerly negative near term momentum to something that is more neutral now, although the MACD lines still show a slight negative bias. There is still a near term barrier around $1.1420 with the longer term $1.1465 resistance is still key.

 

GBP/USD

The slide on Cable has been averted, at least for now. After the recent sell-off had been shallowing for the past few days, yesterday’s mild gains for sterling has helped to bolster the pivot around $1.4400. As I have said previously, this is not an exact support but, once again the intraday breach (to $1.4372) has failed to be confirmed and the bulls have supported again. This support has continued into the early gains today too. This move means that the momentum indicators have become far more benign in a correction, in a similar way to the euro, with the RSI bottoming out around 50 and the Stochastics also looking to arrest their decline. I discussed previously about the hourly technical indicators potentially signalling an improvement, and if there is a consistent move on the hourly RSI above 60 to accompany the MACD lines holding above neutral then this could be a sign of the bulls gathering momentum. Monday’s high at $1.4480 will be a near term resistance target for the bulls and beyond that the Non-farm Payrolls spike high at $1.4540. It looks as though the support around $1.4400 is holding and this is positive for the medium term outlook. The low at $1.4300 remains key for the medium term bulls.

 

USD/JPY

With six positive candles in the past seven completed sessions the recovery has been progressing well, however the early correction today could now question the longevity of the rebound. I continue to believe that rallies will be sold into as the technical outlook remains negative over the medium term. There is much overhead supply being encountered now and the momentum indicators are already at or near levels that has previously been seen as resuming the selling pressure. The RSI unwound to 50 yesterday which was the limit of the March recoveries, whilst the rather tepid recovery on the MACD lines remains unconvincing. The overnight resistance at 109.37 has come in just below the old neckline around 109.75 and the hourly momentum is now unwinding. The support at 108.25 will be watched as a near term gauge but also watch for the hourly RSI moving below 30 and the MACD lines below neutral. My ideal sell-zone for the rally was 109.75/111.00 but the rally may already be running out of steam.

 

Gold

The bottom of the support band $1260/$1282.50 has been hanging on by a thread for the past couple of days (the actual low has been a brief dip to $1257.25) but the seeds of a recovery were sown in a mildly positive candle yesterday which has been backed by overnight gains as the buyers seem to be returning once more. The importance of the support around $1260 is subsequently growing now. The bulls will need to continue to push forward and take the price back above $1295.70 otherwise the prospect of another lower high will grow. The RSI is reflecting the improvement and picking up from above 50 is a positive sign for the bulls, even though the Stochastics continue to fall. The hourly chart shows the move back above the old May low at $1269 which had threatened to become a pivot level yesterday but the bulls have now pushed strongly above this today as hourly momentum indicators continue to improve. The bulls still have work to do to abort this corrective phase of the past 8 days but the improvement is building again.

 

WTI Oil

The rather messy consolidation continues after the oil price has once again picked up from the support band between $42.50/$43.50. The positive candle has managed to unwind most of the losses of the previous session after almost 3% gains on the day and maintains the positive medium term outlook. The bulls are though now having some questions asked as momentum indicators are deteriorating, with the Stochastics especially in correction mode now. The fear would be that the resistance just above $46.00 is being strengthened and near term lower highs are forming under the key April high at $46.80. Ultimately though it could be the uptrend from the February low that is the key indicator, currently coming in at $41.90. The intraday hourly chart shows the near term support is now in place at $43.03.