Good Morning,
- Euro trade with a slightly positive mood as Greek debt talks give hopes for a solution…and the dollar index was up at 97.20 level, pulling back from a one-month high of 97.775 hit on Wednesday.
- Asian shares rose on Friday as Chinese shares edged back from the previous day's plunge.
- Greece's government intends to reach an agreement with its lenders on a cash-for-reforms deal by Sunday, its spokesman said on Thursday, brushing off comments from euro zone officials suggesting a deal was far from imminent.
- Switzerland's real gross domestic product (GDP) in the 1st quarter 2015 fell by 0.2%. The trade balance in goods and services in particular delivered negative growth contributions. Positive development of gross investments and household consumption prevented a larger decline in GDP.
- According to provisional results of the Destatis, retail turnover in April 2015 in Germany increased 1.0% in real terms and 1.3% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year.
- Morgan Stanley on EUR/USD: In its weekly FX note to clients, Morgan Stanley discusses the USD outlook going into next Friday's non-farm payrolls report, and the EUR outlook heading into the due date of Greece next repayment to the IMF which is also on next Friday June 05. The following are some of the key points in MS' note along with its latest EUR/USD forecasts. US Data Turning the Corner. "After a soft first quarter, US economic data have been rebounding nicely in Q2. Should the data remain firm, as we expect, there is scope for further USD upside given the clean positioning in the market," Greece Crisis. "The market focus is now on the next repayment due to the IMF on June 5. Negotiations look set to go down to the wire. Without an agreement, Greece will struggle to make the upcoming IMF and ECB loan repayments," MS notes. ‘’The risk factors for EUR from Greece are increasing, in our view. We expect to see EUR returning to its longer-term downtrend, and negative news regarding Greece could accelerate this trend," We maintain our bearish EUR view on a Grexit scenario, but with the market split on its interpretation of the implications for EUR, we believe that volatility is likely to increase further," MS adds. EUR/USD forecasts: MS maintains its EUR/USD forecasts at 1.04 by Q2-end, 1.03 by Q3-end, and 0.98 by year-end.
- The dollar’s recent rally against the yen is still on, after scaling 124.46 overnight, its fresh highest since 2002. The greenback was knocked off the peak as Japanese government officials used stronger language to describe recent moves, with Finance Minister Taro Aso saying the yen's recent drop had been "rough."
- Finance Minister Joe Oliver says Canada’s economy will still outpace overall growth in Group of Seven countries this year, despite the plunge in oil prices.
- GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index has decreased three points to 1 in May. All of the five measures used to calculate the index saw decreases this month.
- Sales of new homes in Australia rose for a fourth straight month in April to reach their highest since at least 2010 as falling mortgage rates and the lure of rising house values drove demand.
- Crude oil extended gains after rebounding overnight as latest data showing a fourth weekly drawdown in U.S. crude stocks.
- Watch today: Germany's retail data, GDP of several European countries are published, EZ money & US GDP estimate.
Have a nice Week !
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