Good Morning,
- The U.S. dollar index hovered near six-month highs on Monday, holding onto solid gains made last week.
- The euro trade in a narrow range, within close reach of $1.3421 plumbed on Friday, its lowest since November 2013. The euro took another hit on Friday after Germany's Ifo business climate index disappoint.
- The German Ifo report on Friday showing a slump in German business sentiment and news the European Union was a step closer to imposing economic sanctions on Russia combined to undermine the common currency.
- Asian stocks shrugged off a drop in Wall Street and hovered near three-year highs on Monday, with China taking the lead after data showed a robust jump in profits earned by industrial firms.
- The dollar index was steady at 81.045, after it peaked at 81.084 on Friday, a high not seen since early February. So far this month, it has rallied around 1.6 percent, on track for its best monthly gain since January.
- Credit Suisse on EUR/USD: The pair holds a bearish "wedge" and a “head & shoulders” top for 1.3374 initially, then 1.3248. EURUSD continues to consolidate recent losses, and with minor resistance levels still as yet still unchallenged and a large bear "wedge" pattern and now also "head & shoulders" top in place, we stay directly bearish. We look for further weakness to 1.3399 initially, then the 50% retracement of the 2013/14 rise at 1.3374. We allow for a bounce here ahead of our target at 1.3248/28 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2012/2014 uptrend. While we would expect this to hold at first, bigger picture, we see scope for 1.2755. Resistance shows at 1.3486/95 initially, above which can see a move back to 1.3531, with 1.3550/53 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. CS holds EUR/USD short with a stop at 1.3553, targeting 1.3250.
- The two-day Federal Reserve policy review ending on Wednesday was also in focus but expectations were for Chair Janet Yellen to deliver the usual dovish message.
- U.S. Treasury yields remained near at recent lows, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note at 2.478 percent in Asia, not far from its U.S. close of 2.469 percent on Friday.
- The New Zealand dollar eased to $0.8533, wallowing at six-week lows. It has tumbled nearly 3 percent in the past two weeks, with most of the fall coming after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand signaled last week it was pausing its tightening cycle following four straight interest rate hikes.
- The latest figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed currency speculators increased their bullish bets on the greenback in the week ended July 22.
- Brent crude shed 0.4 percent to $107.96 a barrel but still retained a chunk of its gains from Friday, when it climbed more than $1 as fighting in Ukraine and deteriorating relations between Russia and the United States ignited new fears of supply disruptions.
- Watch today: Italian confidence, US services PMI, US home sales. FOMC, U.S. GDP and nonfarm payrolls main focus this week
Have a nice Week!
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