Good Morning,
- New low for the Euro at 1.3437, as some big names continue to play the strong dollar scenario…
- Asian stocks edged higher on Thursday as U.S. tech earnings impressed and a surprisingly strong reading on Chinese manufacturing. Japan's Nikkei -0.29%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.65% (07:01 GMT), Korea's Kospi -0.0%, Australia's ASX 200 0.18% and China's Shanghai 1.28%.
- The Ukraine crisis and the downed Malaysian airliner maintained a safety bid for high-rated bonds.
- IMF says Fed could keep rate low past mid-2015 if outlook holds.
- Credit Suisse on EUR/USD: The pair has finally capitulated below the key 1.3477 February low, notes Credit Suisse. "This confirms the long-awaited large bear "wedge" pattern and now also a "head & shoulders" top, and we maintain our bearish outlook for further weakness to 1.3399 initially, then the 50% retracement of the 2013/14 rise at 1.3374, CS argues.”We allow for a bounce here ahead of our target at 1.3248/28 – the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2012/2014 uptrend. While we would expect this to hold at first, bigger picture, we see scope for 1.2755," CS projects. "Resistance shows at 1.3495 initially, then 1.3531, with 1.3550/53 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above can see a deeper recovery to 1.3570/75," CS adds. In line with this view, CS maintains a short EUR/USD position with a stop at 1.3553, and a target at 1.3250.
- British pound fell from near two-year highs against the euro on Wednesday and struck a three-week low versus the dollar after minutes from this month's Bank of England policy meeting were less hawkish than markets expected. The minutes showed that BoE officials discussed whether there was a case for an early interest rate rise, but there were concerns about hurting the recovery.
- The HSBC flash PMI for China came in at 52.0 for July, well above forecasts of a small rise to 51 in July and the highest reading in 18 months. There was also good news on the outlook, with a sub-index of new orders reaching 53.7.
- BOJ’s Kuroda says Japan is dealing with some significant demographic challenges, plus risks of excessive credit expansion and destabilization of financial system, prompt action to address demographic challenges is needed to preserve growth momentum of domestic demand-led economy in Asia. It’s important to establish regional safety nets in Asia to prepare for possible external shocks. Current global accommodative financial conditions raise the possibility of unhealthy global capital inflows into Asian economies. Asian countries should prevent excessive expansion of credit to ensure domestic demand-led growth.
- Japan’s trade deficit was larger than economists forecast after exports unexpectedly fell, dragging on an economy that has seen a stronger-than-expected slowdown after a sales-tax increase in April. The shortfall in June was 822.2 billion yen ($8.1 billion), the finance ministry reported, surpassing the 643 billion yen median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
- The New Zealand dollar skidding to a six-week low after the country's central bank took a verbal axe to the currency, saying its high level was unjustified.
- The kiwi dropped to $0.8567 against the US dollar when the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised rates to 3.5 percent, but said it was prudent to pause on policy after four straight hikes.
- Watch today: EU growth, US manufacturing, US jobless.
Have a nice Day!
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