Japanese yen swung wildly as Japan unexpectedly slips into recession in the third quarter: Nov 18, 2014


Market Review - 17/11/2014 22:48GMT

Japanese yen swung wildly as Japan unexpectedly slips into recession in the third quarter

The greenback swung wildly against the Japanese yen on Monday. U.S. dollar opened higher n rose to a fresh 7-year high at 117.06 after the release of Japan's Q3 GDP which unexpectedly contracted but the pair fell sharply to 115.46 due to the sell off in Nikkei-225 index before rebounding to 116.55 in NY.

Japan's GDP in Q3 fell at an annualised 1.6% pace in Jul-Sep period, after it plunged 7.3% in the 2nd quarter following a rise in the national sales tax. The economy had been forecast to rebound by 2.1% in the 3rd quarter.

Japan PM Shinzo Abe said 'wud like to analyse situation calmly n decide whether to press head with planned sales tax hike; 3 arrows of gov't econ policies steadily yielding results; Jul-Sep GDP not encouraging figures; cannot miss chance to exit deflaton.'

Japan EconMin Akira Amari said 'given state of economy, high chance PM Abe to decide some form of economic stimulus; any stimulus package wud need to balance growth n fiscal discipline; may be difficult to compile an exceptionally large stimulus package; measures to help low-income households one option but up to PM Abe to decide stimulus details.'

Despite euro's brief rise to 1.2578 in Asia on Monday, the single currency tumbled due to active cross selling in eur/jpy (fell from 146.52 to 144.88) and the pair fell to as low as 1.2446 in NY.

ECB's president, as ESRB head, said concerned by the fact that loose monetary policy could produce higher risks for financial stability; for the moment we don't see any systematic over-valuation of assets, remain vigilant. ECB's Mersch said 'unconventional measures cud theoretically include buying state bonds or other assets such as gold, shares, exchange traded funds.'

The British pound found renewed buying at 1.5664 in New Zealand on Monday and rose to 1.5737 due to initial cross selling versus jpy, however, selling interest quickly emerged and price tumbled to as low as 1.5620 in European morning before rebounding briefly to 1.5659 in New York. BoE's Weale said 'situation in Eurozone is not as gloomy as some people had feared.'

Tuesday will see the release of Australia's CB leading indicator, Westpac leading index and RBA meeting minutes, China house prices, U.K. CPI, PPI and RPI, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment, U.S. PPI, Redbook, NAHB housing market index, net L-T flows, overall net capital flows and foreign treasury buys.

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