• CAD, AUD, NZD – Is this a Real Bottom?
  • Dumping Dollars
  • Great Euro Short Squeeze Drives Pair Above 1.08
  • NZD: Prices Fall 3% at Latest Dairy Auction
  • AUD Shakes Off Disappointing Chinese Data, Employment Next
  • GBP: All Eyes on UK Employment

CAD, AUD, NZD – Is this a Real Bottom?
The nasty correction in the U.S. dollar this week drove all of the major currencies higher. While the dollar did not discriminate, some currencies deserve to rally more than others. The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars were among the week’s best performers and at least one of these currencies is experiencing a real bottom. Having traded within a wide 1.2385 to 1.2835 range for the past 11 weeks, USD/CAD sold off hard Wednesday on the back of the Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement, rising oil prices and weaker U.S. data. After leaving interest rates unchanged, the BoC adopted a more optimistic tone that ruled out the chance of another rate cut this year. USD/CAD climbed to a 6 year high last month of the belief that Canada would lower interest rates shortly before the Federal Reserve raised rates. At the time, WTI crude was trading at $43 a barrel with many market participants calling for $30 oil. However a lot has changed since then. Oil prices increased $14 or 30% and the Bank of Canada now expect the economy to improve in the second half of the year. This provides the fundamental basis for a real bottom in the Canadian dollar and an official top in USD/CAD. Technically, USD/CAD closed below its 100-day SMA for the first time since August, opening the door for a move down to 1.20. Meanwhile stronger than expected Australian employment numbers and a rebound in iron ore prices catapulted the Australian dollar higher. These developments are encouraging but they do not remove the risk that slower Chinese growth has on Australia’s economy. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank won’t be happy to see AUD/USD trading above 78 cents. So while there has also been justification for the rise in the Aussie, there are also reasons to be skeptical of the rally. The same is true for the New Zealand dollar. Dairy prices dropped for the third auction in a row, forcing economists to lower their forecast for Fonterra milk payout. While Finance Minister English believes that the country will be able to ride through low dairy prices and grow sustainably, until the price of New Zealand’s most important export stabilizes, we remain skeptical of the NZD/USD rally. With that in mind, we can’t ignore that today, NZD/USD closed strongly above its 100-day SMA and rose above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 to 2014 rally.

usdcad

Dumping Dollars
Everyone from traders to investors continued to sell U.S. dollars, driving the greenback to fresh lows against all of the major currencies. Unfortunately more disappointments in U.S. data added pressure on the greenback. Housing starts, building permits and jobless claims all fell short of expectations with starts rising 2% versus a 15.9% forecast, building permits dropping 5.7% and claims hitting 294k versus a forecasted decline to 280k. While these aren’t terrible numbers, the back-to-back weakness in U.S. economic reports this week hit the dollar hard. Even a stronger Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index failed to stem the slide. The second leg of the dollar’s decline today was triggered by comments from Fed President and FOMC voter Lockhardt who said he prefers a later Fed rate liftoff. Fed President Rosengren also agrees that the economy should have more momentum before rates are raised but he is not a voter this year. In fact, we heard from a number of U.S. policymakers today including Lacker and Fischer and most still support a rate hike between June and September. Even Lockhardt whose comments played a major role in today’s dollar decline said a June liftoff is still on the table even though that may not be his preference. We have never been a supporter of tightening in June so these comments are consistent with our view that rates will rise in September. However until we get some positive U.S. economic reports to reverse sentiment, the dollar could extend its slide.

Great Euro Short Squeeze Drives Pair Above 1.08
Short positions in the euro continue to be squeezed with the currency pair rising swiftly above 1.08. Weaker U.S. data contributed to the move but it was a rally driven mostly by technicals and flows because the German-US 10 year yield spread moved lower and the only headlines out of Europe today were negative for the currency. However that matters little when short positions are near record highs and traders finally have an excuse to take profits. With no news on the calendar to reverse the existing sentiment, we could see further gains in the EUR/USD before the sellers jump back in. The ECB is still flooding the market with liquidity this year and Grexit remains on the table. According to our colleague Boris Schlossberg, “The latest point of concern was a report in the Greek paper Ekathimerini saying that New Democracy believes that a Greek exit is possible. This comes on the back of the S&P downgrade yesterday and constant negative comments from German Finance Minister Schaeuble. As we noted yesterday many of the EZ policy makers appear to have given up on the prospect of Greece remaining in the union and while the financial risks of such a move have been curtailed, the political risks are unknown. If Greece were to leave the union it would set the precedent and open the way for anti-EU parties in Italy and France to assert their power.” Until the risk of a Grexit is fully eliminated, gains in the EUR/USD will be limited.

GBP: All Eyes on UK Employment
The British pound extended its gains against the U.S. dollar, rising within arms reach of 1.50. We are surprised by the strength of the currency but the decline in the dollar has impacted all major currencies. Whether sterling breaks above this key level in the next 24 hours will now depend on U.K. data. The labor market report is scheduled for release tomorrow and if jobless claims drop less than expected or the unemployment rate fails to improve, sterling will reverse quickly. In addition to these measures, traders will also be watching average hourly earnings closely because policymakers have been particularly concerned about wage growth. Currently economists are looking for broad based improvements and if they are right, 1.50 will break easily.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued

EUR/USD stabilizes near 1.0800 as trading action turns subdued

EUR/USD holds steady near 1.0800 on Thursday and remains on track to end the day in negative territory following upbeat macroeconomic data releases from the US. The action in financial markets turn subdued as trading volumes thin out heading into Easter holiday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600

GBP/USD extends sideways grind above 1.2600

GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth help the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.

GBP/USD News

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.

Gold News

XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC

XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC

XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase. 

Read more

Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2

Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2

Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures