Stanislava Pravdova
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers
In the US the first estimate for Q2 GDP is expected to show an annualised increase to 2.5% q/q from -0.2% q/q in Q1. Consumer spending is likely to have been a major positive contributor to growth with an expected expansion of 2.9% q/q ann. in Q2. In addition to the GDP print, the annual revisions to the GDP accounts could also attract some attention. Revisions will primarily cover 2012 through the first quarter of 2015.
Initial jobless claims are expected to rebound to 270k following last week’s decline to 255k, which was the lowest level since November 1973.
We expect both German and Spanish HCIP inflation to increase slightly to 0.2% y/y in July from 0.1% y/y and 0.0% y/y, respectively, in June.
In Scandinavia, we have yet another day with multiple data releases including Swedish Q2 GDP, retail sales from Norway and unemployment and industrial confidence from Denmark.
Selected Market News
The statement from the July FOMC meeting was very little changed compared with the previous meeting in mid-June but it included an important ‘some’ in anticipation of the first rate hike. In our view, this suggests the FOMC is not far from the first rate hike and we see the statement as consistent with an FOMC that remains on track to deliver a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting in September. See US - FOMC: Only'some' further progress needed for September rate hike for more details.
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