Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers
It is a week filled with plenty of events for the market as there are three central bank meetings kicking off with Australia on Tuesday, Canada on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday together with plenty of economic data with focus on flash estimates for EU inflation on Wednesday and US non-farm payrolls on Friday. On top of this, we have a string of Fed speeches with key focus on Yellen’s speech on Thursday and an OPEC meeting on Friday. We expect Australia and Canada to be on hold but we expect a 20bp cut from the ECB, where consensus is just looking for 10bp.
Today, we have preliminary inflation data from Germany and Italy, final Q3 GDPdata for Portugal and US Chicago PMI data.
There are also plenty of market movers in Scandinavia this week, while we are waiting for the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings mid-December. Today, both Sweden and Denmark are set to release Q3 GDP. We look for softer GDP growth in both countries. Later this week we have DKK currency reserves and the regional survey from Norway, which is a key indicator for Norges Bank.
Selected Market News
The negative sentiment on Asian bourses continues this morning as the chance of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December is increasing and concerns about the slowdown in China continue to weigh on the markets.
The Chinese Yuan is set for inclusion in the IMF’s SDR today, so that should not come as a surprise. The IMF is voting today on including the Yuan in the SDR and it is widely expected that the Yuan will become part of the currencies that are in the SDR basket.
The euro remains under 1.06 against the dollar in Asian trading this morning while we are awaiting the ECB meeting, but otherwise movements in the major currencies have been modest this morning.
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