Market movers today

  • The German Ifo for March is expected to show a further increase as indicated by the rise in both ZEW and PMI index. We look for a rise to 107.4 (consensus 107.3) from 106.8 last month. The expectations index, which is the most forward looking sub-index, is expected to rise to 103.0 from 102.5, in line with consensus expectations.

  • In the US, Fed’s Evans (voter, dove) is due to talk at 11:30 CET. Being a dove he will probably speak in favour of a relatively late lift-off.

  • US durable goods orders for February are due. Following a sharp drop during the autumn the latest data have shown some sign of stabilisation. Consensus is for a rise of 0.5% m/m after 2.8% m/m in January.

  • Danske Bank publishes Nordic Outlook. For more on Scandi markets see page 2.


Selected market news

A trendless session overnight with little more than yesterday’s slightly higher-thanexpected US CPI figures to drive markets. Equities saw very limited moves in both the Asian and US sessions and US Treasury ended the day a few bps lower with a bullish flattening of the curve taking place. EUR/USD has dropped below the 1.10 level again and Brent crude oil is back around USD55/bbl.

Recently, focus in emerging markets (EM) has centred on whether those countries with USD-denominated debt will be able to weather recent USD strength. In our view, today’s largely flexible exchange rates in most EM countries go a long way in avoiding a 1990s repetition. Notably, overnight the Brazilian central bank said it would start to scale back its long-standing support for the BRL. This should indeed be viewed as an attempt to facilitate the much needed adjustment in Brazil by allowing the currency to weaken further.

Iran’s negotiations with the P5+1 group regarding its nuclear operations are set to continue with expectations mounting that a deal could be reached as the month draws to a close. Since Rouhani became president back in 2013 negotiations have proved increasingly fruitful and lately disagreements have shifted to the extent and pace of Western sanctions potentially set to be lifted in the event of a deal. US Congress and Iran’s supreme leader, Khamenei, likely still stand in the way of a more permanent solution but an easing of Iran’s oil export options would clearly add to an already oversupplied global market and could thus depress the oil price further.

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading

AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading

The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight

EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight

The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.

EUR/USD News

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold pulls away from daily highs, holds above $2,200

Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays near 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gather further bullish momentum.

Gold News

Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses

Google starts indexing Bitcoin addresses

Bitcoin address data is live on Google search results after users realized on Thursday that the tech giant started indexing Bitcoin blockchain data. However, mixed reactions have followed the tech giant's reversed stance on the cryptocurrency.

Read more

A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP

A Hollywood ending for fourth quarter GDP

The latest revisions put Q4 GDP at 3.4%, the second fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. Much of the upside was attributable to stronger consumer spending, yet fresh profits data affirmed it was a good quarter for the bottom line as well with profits up by the most since the Q2-2022.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures