The US ISM manufacturing index remains almost unchanged

Market movers today

• In Europe the only notable releases are Construction PMI for November in the UK and producer prices for October in the euro area. In the US auto sales for November will be released this evening, the first indication of the strength of private consumption in November.

• German and French finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet today in Berlin and they are scheduled to brief the press together after the meeting at 16:30 CET.

• We also have a number of Fed speeches in the calendar today. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen (voter, dove) is scheduled to speak at 14:30 CET but it will only be a brief opening remark and probably not a lot about monetary policy. Fed vice-chairman Stanley Fischer (voter, neutral) and Fed governor Lael Brainard (voter, dove) will also be speaking today at 14:10 CET and 18:00 CET, respectively.

• In Denmark November’s currency reserve numbers will be published, cf. below.

Selected market news

The focus of investors remains firmly on the continued slide in the oil price and the increasingly disorderly knock-on effects on the markets in commodity-exporting countries. Yesterday the RUB came under significant pressure. At one point it had lost as much as 8% against the USD and the EUR and even though it rebounded somewhat, it is very clear that the Russian markets in general remain extremely fragile.

Both the European and US stock markets dropped yesterday due to, among other things, disappointing numbers for retail sales on Black Friday in the US and worries about Chinese growth. This morning the Asian stock markets are trading slightly up across the board. Most notably, the Japanese Nikkei index is slightly up despite the fact that the credit rating agency Moody’s cut Japan’s credit rating to A1 from AA3.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2.5%. In a comment about the rate decision, RBA governor Glenn Stevens repeated that the AUD ‘remains above its fundamental value, particularly given the significant declines in key commodity prices in recent months’ and that ‘a lower exchange rate is needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy’. The AUD changed little on the comments.

After having made somewhat of a rebound yesterday the oil price is once again trading lower this morning.

The US ISM manufacturing index – published yesterday - surprised once again in November. The index was almost unchanged at 58.7, only marginally lower than in October (59.0). See US: ISM manufacturing remains too high, 1 December 2014.