The US non-manufacturing ISM will also draw attention

Market movers today

• US non-farm payrolls take centre stage. We expect a rise of 250k, higher than the consensus estimate of 218k. There are two reasons why we continue to look for payroll growth around 250k. First, our model for payrolls comprising a range of labour market indicators points to job growth of 250-260k. Second, there is going to be some technical payback from very weak service employment in August, which was partly related to strike activity, see US labour market monitor: still strong signs from job indicators, 30 September. We look for an unchanged unemployment rate of 6.1% in line with consensus. Wage increases have remained subdued around 2% but we expect to see a gradual increase soon as the labour market is gradually tightening.

• The US non-manufacturing ISM will also draw attention. We see downside risk as seen in the ISM for the manufacturing sector as well. The non-manufacturing ISM is at a very high level and with consumption growth moderating a bit lately, we should see a decline in the index. This might add to the picture of weaker-than-expected business cycle data out of the US.

• We also get PMI service data in Europe. The service sector has generally held up better than manufacturing but we will likely see some increasing spill-over to the service sector in coming months. Euro retail sales will also give some input to whether consumption is being affected by the slowdown in manufacturing.

• Sweden will release data for industrial- and service production.

Selected market news

Financial markets initially responded with disappointment to the ECB’s announcement yesterday, as the ECB failed to commit to a size for its ABS and covered bond purchase programme and in general did not make a strong commitment to expanding its balance sheet, see ECB meeting: QE in sovereign bonds not just around thecorner, 2 October.

The impact on euro-area peripheral spreads was modest with 10-year government bond spreads for Italy and Spain widening by about 5bp. Stock markets declined markedly in the wake of the ECB announcement but they largely recovered losses in late US trade with S&P 500 finishing yesterday’s session unchanged. The USD initially weakened against both the EUR and JPY but the USD has recovered a large part of its losses overnight.

In Hong Kong the demonstrators’ deadline for the resignation of Chief Executive Leung has expired without any escalation and tension has eased a bit after Leung agreed to let his administration start a dialogue with student demonstrators. In China the non-manufacturing PMI in September declined marginally to 54.0 from 54.4 in August. Finally, a bit of positive news in Japan, where service PMI improved to 52.5 in September from 49.9, suggesting that the impact from the consumption tax hike could be waning.