Signe Roed-Frederiksen
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers today
Details on the German Q3 GDP numbers are released today and focus will be on how much private consumption grew last quarter.
We expect US household sentiment to get a boost from declining gasoline prices, decent job growth and rising stock prices. This should translate into an increase in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence.
We look for US Q3 GDP growth to be revised lower in line with consensus. Both S&P/Case-Shiller and the FHFA measure of US house prices are set to have increased in September.
The Danish refinancing auctions continue today.
Selected market news
Yesterday’s good news from the German Ifo index gave support to European stocks. The Ifo index increased for the first time since April and the gain was broad-based with higher expectations in the retail, wholesale, construction and manufacturing sectors.
Overnight, the minutes released from the 31 October Bank of Japan meeting confirmed that there was considerable disagreement about the bold easing measures announced at the meeting. The main argument for easing was concern about possible lower inflation expectations in the wake of downward pressure on consumer prices and slower growth after the consumption tax hike. However, a substantial minority argued that additional benefits from more easing would be modest and potential costs could be high. Overall the minutes suggest it will be difficult to get a majority for more easing in 2015.
Japanese markets were closed yesterday and stocks have caught up with the gains in global stocks this morning. In the FX market the Russian rouble continues to strengthen. Brent crude oil prices have moved lower, as expectations that OPEC will be able to agree on cutting oil production at its meeting on Thursday are fading.
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