The ‘No' vote means we will see some relief in the markets

Market movers today

• Main focus will be the digestion of the Scottish referendum. The ‘No’ vote means we will see some relief in the markets.

• Moody's has France and the UK up for review. There has been speculation about a possible downgrade of France but we expect the rating to be on hold.

• Otherwise there will be some focus on the repayment of the ECB LTRO, as some banks may simply be rolling money from the LTRO into the TLTRO (see more under Fixed income on next page).

• In terms of key figures there is nothing of importance today. Maybe Canadian CPI will attract a little attention. CPI inflation is a bit on the high side in Canada, just above the 2% target, while core inflation at 1.7% is just below the target.

Selected market news

This morning most of the results from yesterday’s independence referendum in Scotland have been announced. Although two out of the total 32 council areas have still not declared, the ‘No’ camp has gained enough votes to secure a ‘No’ in the final result of the referendum. The final result looks to favour a ‘No’ with 55% of the votes against a ‘Yes’ with 45% of the votes.

Markets have reacted positive to the news: the GBP and futures on European equity indices trade higher, notably the future FTSE 100 (UK equity index), as the uncertainty about the future outlook for the UK and the Scottish economy has been removed – see further details below.

Yesterday, speculation increased over whether France will be downgraded by Moody’s today. France has been on negative outlook since November 2012. Recently, France has announced that it will not be able to meet its target for the budget deficit this year and next year and has furthermore revised down its growth forecast for 2014. However, we do not expect that France will be downgraded as Moody’s has probably taken into account the weaker outlook for the French economy in its assessment – see further details below.

The oil price has lost a bit of ground again. Brent has dropped back below USD98/bbl. The oil price got some support earlier in the week as OPEC hinted it may lower its 2015 production target to 29.5mb/d from 30.0mb/d in an effort to support prices. We expect the oil price to remain steady from here close to USD98/bbl.