Littlefish FX Analysts
Littlefish FX
KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (GMT) :
0930 GBP PPI Input m/m 1.6% v -3.7%
0930 GBP RPI y/y 0.9% v 1.1%
0930 GBP CPI y/y 0.1% v 0.3%
1230 USD CPI m/m 0.2% v -0.7%
1230 USD Core CPI m/m 0.1% v 0.2%
1345 USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 54.9 v 54.3
1400 USD New Home Sales 466K v 481K
OVERNIGHT:
In hindsight, the melt higher in EURUSD on Wednesday was too fast for a proper position cleanse with the market taking too much comfort in the subsequent sell off believing the worst was over. The sustained squeeze on Friday/Monday has finally brought the market to its knees with a variety of names stopping out of cash shorts clearing order books. This is a continuation of the “weak hands to strong hands” positioning. The FOMC was obviously damaging to the broader USD trend and we are in a holding pattern for now, but markets still believe the euro will underperform other currencies on the back of the same supply that we’ve seen in months past. While there will be some fluctuations in European fixed income as the market adjusts to the ECB QE program, market believes European yields have more room to run lower and should weigh on the single currency. Euro zone consumer confidence jumped more than expected to -3.7 in March against -6.7 the previous month. Rallies on the day towards 1.0960/80 should meet resistance with support at 1.0850
GBPUSD consolidated in range between 1.4800 to 1.5000; the possibly of deflation and the uncertainty risk of general election in May still weigh the pair, EURGBP printed a three-week high as investors have pushed back their expectation of the time in rising interest rates.The market is waiting for the release of inflation data
USDJPY lost 0.25 percent overnight. Japan’s government raised its overall economic assessment for the first time since July 2014; Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, with improvement seen in the corporate sector, Cabinet Office said in March’s report. With Japan fiscal year end looming large market positioned for selling into rallies as player anticipate more supply on breaks lower.
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: While 1.0960/80 contains upside target 1.0460
GBP: While 1.5030/50 contains upside target 1.4630
JPY: While 119.60/40 contains downside target 124.00
CAD: While 124.60/40 contains downside target 130
AUD: While .7910/30 contains upside target .72
All comments, charts and analysis on this website are purely provided to demonstrate our own personal thoughts and views of the market and should in no way be treated as recommendations or advice. Please do not trade based solely on any information provided within this site, always do your own analysis.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 after US data
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GBP/USD retreats toward 1.2450 on modest USD rebound
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Gold trades in positive territory above $2,380 on Thursday. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady following upbeat US data, XAU/USD continues to stretch higher on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East.
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Have we seen the extent of the Fed rate repricing?
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