Technical Analysis

EUR/USD faces monthly R1

EURUSD

“The ECB is saying ‘we’re not putting a limit on QE, we’re not stopping until we achieve our objective.’ If they don’t do anything, the balance sheet still expands.”

- Standard & Poor’s (based on Bloomberg)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    The immediate resistance is at 1.14, represented by the upper Bollinger band and monthly R1. The base scenario is EUR/USD bouncing off this level, but we should not rule out a possibility of a rally to the September high, especially considering that the weekly technical indicators continue to give more ‘buy’ signals than ‘sell’ ones. Meanwhile, most of the monthly studies are bearish, meaning in the long run we are likely to see a re-test of the major rising support line, which currently is at 1.11 dollars.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The gap between the bulls and bears widens. The difference in favour of the latter increased up to eight percentage points. On the other hand, the share of buy orders rose from 58 to 61%.

GBP/USD attempts to break away from 1.53

GBPUSD

“The economy remains on a satisfactory track and ... I see a (rate) liftoff decision later this year at the October or December FOMC meetings as likely appropriate.”

- Dennis Lockhart, Federal Reserve (based on WBP Online)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Upon reaching the immediate resistance in face of the weekly R3 on Friday, the GBP/USD was pushed back, leading to a fall towards the 1.53 major level. Dips were limited by the anticipated target, remaining a strong support area today, represented by the 20-day SMA, weekly and monthly PPs. However, the 200-day SMA around 1.5319 could limit the Cable’s attempts to appreciate today, while the second resistance area is located out of reach. Nevertheless, the Sterling also risks falling deeper towards the weekly PP at 1.5274.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Bullish market sentiment returned to its Thursday’s level of 62%, compared to 57% on Friday. There are more orders to purchase the British Pound today, namely 60% (previously 49%).

USD/JPY in limbo amid bank holidays

USDJPY

“We note that the distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is the narrowest it has been for almost two decades. It suggests that even if the triangle pattern is not longer valid, the dollar is coiling against the yen. It warns that a large move may be on the horizon.”

- BBH (based on FXStreet)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    The US currency behaved in accordance with expectations on Friday. The USD/JPY managed to rebound, but with the upside volatility was slowed down by the 20-day SMA, causing the pair to stabilise at 120.25. The Greenback opened just above 120.14, where the weekly pivot point coincides with the 20-day SMA, forming a rather strong support. Consequently, a decline is unlikely to occur, and with the absence of fundamental market movers, the Buck should edge higher against the Yen, but fail to reach the immediate resistance.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Bulls remain strong, as 71% of traders hold long positions today (previously 70%). The number of buy commands, on the other hand, was not so lucky and suffered a decline from 61 to 59%.

Gold closes in on August high

Gold

“There are people looking…and thinking as long as uncertainty is in the global economy and China, the Fed are going to have to hold off.”

- Marex Spectron (based on MarketWatch)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Gold is about to touch August’s high, which is strengthened by the weekly R1 and the Bollinger band. A close above this level will not imply a bullish outlook, mainly because of the supply zone around 1,180 dollars, where the weekly R2 joins forces with the monthly R2 and 200-day SMA. If the precious metal gains a foothold above this area, however, the next target may well be 1,230, namely the May high and the falling resistance from the weekly chart. In case of a strong sell-off in the nearest future the losses should be limited by 1,120 (monthly PP, 55-day SMA and up-trend), but we can also expect a small rebound from the 100-day SMA at 1,140.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The SWFX market remains divided. At the moment 51% of open positions are long and 49% are short.

  Don't miss our new daily forecasts for EUR USDGBP USDUSD CAD and USD JPY!  

This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations

EUR/USD steady below 1.0800 after US PCE meets expectations

EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair barely reacted to US PCE inflation data, with the Greenback shedding some pips.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to speak ahead of the weekly close.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading

GBP/USD hovers around 1.2620 in dull trading

GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a widespread holiday restraining action across financial markets. Investors took a long weekend ahead of critical United States employment data next week. Fed Chair Powell coming up next.

GBP/USD News

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230

Gold price holds near a fresh all-time high at $2,236 in thinned trading amid the Easter Holiday. Most major world markets remain closed, although the United States published core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge.

Gold News

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.

Read more

Key events in developed markets next week

Key events in developed markets next week

Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures