EUR/USD drops as Fed ends QE

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD drops as Fed ends QE

“Maybe we brought forward the (first rate) hike a month or two from where it was yesterday.”

- CRT Capital (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook
  

  The single currency dropped against the US Dollar for the first time in four days yesterday, as the Fed announced the end of its stimulus program. The pair neared a considerable support at 1.2594, represented by the weekly S1 and Bollinger band. If case of successful testing, the Euro is likely to slump down to 2014 low below 1.25 in the medium-term. At the same time, technical indicators are neutral in the short-term, while weekly studies suggest the bearish scenario for this currency cross.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Since yesterday, market sentiment improved slightly, as now 55% of all opened positions are bullish. Pending orders in 100-pip range, however, worsened, as now 57% of them are set to sell the Euro.

GBP/USD dips through 1.60

“The FOMC is making a pretty bold call here. The economy’s momentum is strong enough to push through the headwinds of slower world growth.”

- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.( based on Bloomberg

• Pair’s Outlook
  

  The strong supply area around 1.62 managed to stop bulls from pushing the exchange rate higher and the British currency lost considerable ground against the Buck, fuelled by news from the Fed. The pair even crossed a support at 1.6089, represented by weekly pivot point and 20-day SMA. If the cross breaches the next demand area at 1.5994, then a decline down to 1.59 is almost inevitable in the medium-term, as suggested by weekly technical indicators, which give strong bearish signals at the moment.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  It seems that many short traders took profit from yesterday’s drop of the pair, as now long positions take up 68% of all. Still, 58% of pending orders are set to sell the Cable in 100-pip range.

USD/JPY breaks resistance at 108.93

“The board members gave Kuroda's experiment a one-year moratorium. They decided to wait-and-see for a year. But now it's time of reckoning.”

- Former BoJ board member (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook
  

  The currency pair is decisively moving to its long-term goal at 110, as yesterday the US Dollar stabilised around the weekly resistance at 109. If the bearish pressure here is defeated, then the cross will continue moving to the north. To reach the 2014 high, the pair has only one remaining resistance line to breach in the nearest future, namely the weekly R2 at 109.69. And while daily indicators are mixed, the weekly ones assume the pair to gain strong value.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  Pessimistic sentiment of the SWFX market continues to dominate, as already 65% of all opened positons are short at the moment. However, 62% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to buy the Greenback versus Japanese yen.

USD/CHF approaches 0.96

“We expect tightening will start by June 2015, but, of course, that will depend on the data. For now, there is no urgency for officials to use the statement to signal an imminent move.”

- High Frequency Economics (based on MarketWatch)

• Pair’s Outlook
  

  As expected, the US currency gained enough bullish momentum to start rising, as the pair breached the weekly pivot point and 20-day SMA around 0.95 and decided to advance further. The next short-term goal is located at 0.96, as it is strengthened by the weekly R1 and Bollinger band. The ability to cross this line will most likely determine the pair’s future development. In the long-term, however, the Swiss franc may start putting more pressure on the Buck, as suggested by bearish monthly technical studies.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The probability of Dollar’s rise is dampening, as the number of long positions (55%) declined for the past 24 hours, while 53% of pending orders are now set to sell the American currency against the Swissie.