Technical Analysis

EUR/USD supported by monthly S1

EURUSD

“We are seeing profit-taking ahead of the Jackson Hole speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi.”

- BK Asset Management (based on MarketWatch)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    After three days of losses EUR/USD has finally found support at 1.3250, represented by the monthly S1 and weekly S3. However, unless the Jackson Hole changes the overall picture fundamentally, the rally is likely to be shallow, given there are now tough resistances at 1.33 and 1.3350. Once the current correction is stopped, the currency pair will be expected to resume moving towards the 2013 September low at 1.31.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    While there was no change in the distribution between the long (58%) and short (42%) positions, the share of sell orders placed 50 and 100 pips from the spot price leaped from 54 and 50% to 75 and 69% respectively.

GBP/USD may reach 2014 low this quarter

GBPUSD

“I still like sterling against the euro but with this dollar strength I think the action yesterday and overnight showed you that its worth selling cable into any rally. The dollar is only getting stronger.”

- a dealer with one large bank in London (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    The rate of British Pound’s depreciation relative to the Dollar decelerated ahead of the support at 1.6550. Nevertheless, the bears should remain the main driving force and eventually push the exchange rate down to this year’s low at 1.6250. Though there is a strong intermediate level at 1.6450, formed by the weekly and monthly S3. In the meantime, every attempt of the Sterling to recover is likely to be prevented by 1.67.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The SWFX market participants are currently net buyers of the Sterling, being that 63% of open positions are long and the remaining 37% are short. As for the orders, there is still no difference between the buy and sell ones.

USD/JPY’s upward momentum to be tested by 104

USDJPY

“Anything remotely less dovish than expected from Yellen should lift the dollar, and dollar/yen will be the front-runner there.”

- Nordea (based on CNBC)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    The U.S. Dollar is getting closer to the last quarter’s peak, which is reinforced by the monthly R2 level, and it may prove to be difficult to break, even though most monthly indicators are presently bullish. The July high at 103 will be expected to keep the price afloat, in case there is intensive selling. But once USD/JPY surpasses 104, there will be few doubts the price is going to challenge 2014 high at 105.50 next.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    There are currently slightly more bullish traders (57%) than there are bears, although just a few days the gap amounted to more than 40 percentage points. Concerning the orders, the amounts of buy (49%) and sell ones (51%) are presently equal.

USD/CHF hits a ceiling at 0.9150

USDCHF

“Expectation that Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech will be less hawkish at today’s Jackson Hole meeting is triggering a weaker dollar. Investors are adjusting positions.”

- Suhyup Bank (based on Bloomberg)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Although the resistance at 0.91 is no longer in the way, now it is 2014 high that is forcing USD/CHF to take a step back. Ideally, the pair should stop retreating and launch yet another attack on 0.9150. But the Buck may need to retreat to 0.90 (up-trend, monthly PP and 55-day SMA) in order to start a recovery capable of extending through this supply area and open a path towards 2013 Nov 7 high at 0.9250.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    The sentiment of traders is now neutral with respect to USD/CHF—only 54% of positions are long. On the other hand, the percentage of orders scattered 50 pips from the spot set to acquire the Greenback soared from 45 to 81%.

This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY flat-lines below 151.50 after soft Japanese CPI data

USD/JPY stays defensive below 151.50 after the release of a soft Japan's CPI report and mixed Industrial Production and Retail Sales data on Friday. Japanese verbal intervention also weighs on the pair amid the holiday-thinned conditions on Good Friday. US PCE inflation awaited. 

USD/JPY News

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD buyers lack vigor above 0.6500 amid Good Friday trading lull

AUD/USD is trading listlessly above 0.6500 in the Asian session amid light trading on Good Friday. The Aussie pair shrugs off encouraging comments from China's FX regulator, as price action remains subdued ahead of the US PCE inflation data. 

AUD/USD News

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold flirts with record highs above $2,230, all eyes on US PCE data

Gold price flirts with record highs around $2,230 during the Asian session on Friday. The uptick of yellow metal is bolstered by the safe-haven flows amidst growing economic concerns and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

Gold News

Optimism price could fall as nearly $90 million worth of OP tokens is due flood markets

Optimism price could fall as nearly $90 million worth of OP tokens is due flood markets

Optimism volatility has shrunk in the ours leading to the network’s cliff unlock. It joins the likes of dYdX and Sui, which have similar events on their calendars. As token unlocks are often considered bearish catalysts, investors should brace for a reaction after the event.

Read more

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

Will they won’t they cut rates is the question of Q2?

There has been some significant push back from Fed and Bank of England members around the timing of rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan still haven’t physically intervened in the FX market to stem yen weakness although they are threatening to do so.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures