EUR/USD targets 1.33

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD targets 1.33

“The dollar has gained a lot in the last few weeks so we were probably due a positioning-led correction.”

- UBS (based on Reuters)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  Trading was quiet yesterday, as the weekly pivot point kept EUR/USD afloat. But the currency pair is likely to breach the support at 1.3413 and head towards the 2013 Q4 low near 1.33, as implied by the daily and weekly technical indicators. In case the single European currency refuses to decline immediately, the supply at 1.35 is supposed to be enough to negate any potential bullish momentum and force the price to turn around.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  The distribution between the bulls and bears is virtually unchanged since the last report—53 and 47% respectively. Meanwhile, the share of sell orders placed 100 pips from the spot price declined from 67 to 60%.

GBP/USD undergoes correction

“Investors have been buying into the pound aggressively but there has been some fatigue over the past few weeks.”

- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (based on Bloomberg)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  After an almost non-stop descent from 1.72 GBP/USD has finally formed a noticeable green candle. If the Sterling continues developing this correction, the immediate obstacle at 1.6879 will be unlikely to stop the currency. However, the 100-day SMA at 1.6914 and even more so the resistance at 1.70 are capable of preventing further advancement. Once the rally is fully nullified, the 200-day SMA and May low at 1.67 should be the next destination.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  A portion of the bullish traders seems to have already closed some positions after the yesterday’s rally, being that the percentage of longs went down from 62 to 57%. The share of buy orders also contracted, but from 59 to 54%.

USD/JPY supported at 102.50

“We remain constructive on the U.S. dollar, and continue to run long USD/JPY and short EUR/USD trades in our recommendations portfolio.”

- BNP Paribas (based on CNBC)

• Pair’s Outlook

  The support provided by the 200-day SMA and weekly PP proved to be weaker than initially expected, as the upward momentum is not gaining traction. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains bullish and the resistance at 104 is still within reach. Moreover, a substantial part of the technical indicators, especially on the daily chart, also suggest appreciation of the U.S. Dollar against the Yen. But if 102.50 is broken, 102 will be expected to stop the dip.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  SWFX market participants are apparently using the current pause as an opportunity to enter long positions, the portion of which has already reached 75%. The difference between the amounts of buy and sell orders also widened, from 14 to 24 percentage points.

USD/CHF seeks to refresh 2014 high

“Last week it was all about the dollar but this week, the opportunities will be in relative value plays.”

- BK Asset Management (based on MarketWatch)

• Pair’s Outlook
  
  As it turned out, USD/CHF did not have to slide down to 0.90 in order to terminate the correction that was started last week. Right now the currency pair is facing the weekly PP, but a real threat to the bullish ambitions of the Dollar is posed by this year’s high. And while the near-term technical indicators are in favour of a rally to this peak, longer-term prospects are less clear, but a breach of 0.9156 should pave the way towards 0.9250.

• Traders’ Sentiment

  There are now relatively more bulls (74%) in the market than at the time of the yesterday’s report (72%). In the meantime, the share of buy orders is significantly lower than 24 hours ago, as it fell from 67 to 57%.