Technical Analysis

EUR/USD challenges 1.3958/23

EURUSD

“The euro continues to ride on the momentum generated by ECB's Draghi. Recent economic indicators from the euro zone have been upbeat as a whole, decreasing expectations for further easing.”

- Sumitomo Mitsui Trust (based on CNBC)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    At it turned out, EUR/USD was not required to come back to a cluster of supports at 1.38 in order to resume the rally. At the moment the currency pair is eroding the monthly R1. If it succeeds at breaching this resistance at 1.3958/23, the next target will most likely be the monthly R2 level at 1.4047, even though on the daily and weekly charts the technical indicators are mixed.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    SWFX market participants are not getting discouraged by Euro’s appreciation. Most of them remain convinced that eventually the single currency will depreciate, as 66% of open positions are short. Concerning the orders, there are now more buy ones 100 pips from the spot, namely 63%.

GBP/USD backed up by 1.66

GBPUSD

“The risk of further appreciation is asymmetric and skewed to the downside. Optimism has led to investors being extremely overweight sterling. And we’re now getting to the point where it’s unsustainable.”

- Bank of America (based on Bloomberg)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    While being underpinned by a strong support area around 1.66 (monthly PP, up-trend 55-day SMA), the Cable seems to be inclined to rise. Presently the currency pair is testing the resistance at 1.6675/52 and in case the Sterling extends the gains, the weekly PP at 1.6719 is going to come under pressure next. In the long run, however, we still expect the British Pound to underperform.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    Even though the gap between the bullish and bearish market participants widened, it still remains rather small. At the moment of writing 44% of positions were long and 56% were short. As for the orders, the difference between the buy (49%) and sell (51%) ones declined.

USD/JPY slides beneath 102.78/71

USDJPY

“It seems that the yen is one beneficiary of a more nervous world.”

- Westpac Banking (based on Bloomberg)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    Although at first it appeared that USD/JPY will find support at 102.78/71, right now it is on the verge of violating this important demand zone. The U.S. Dollar will then have few reasons to turn around before it reaches the 38.2% Fibo of the October-December bullish run, despite the daily and monthly technical studies largely pointing to the upside.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    An overwhelming majority (74%) of the traders believe that the buck is going to regain its bullishness and increase in value relative to the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the percentage of buy orders placed on USD/JPY is falling. While yesterday 71% of market participants were willing to purchase the U.S. Dollar, today—only 67%.

USD/CHF stays bearish

USDCHF

“If there's any dominant theme, it's one of 'risk-off' given the concern over the slowdown in China and its financial problems.”

- HSBC (based on Reuters)

  • Pair’s Outlook

    USD/CHF continues to cede ground. The currency pair has already fallen down to the weekly S1 and may still take a few steps downstairs. Nevertheless, near 0.87 (monthly S1, down-trend) the greenback should bottom out and commence a robust recovery. Potentially this could lead to a break-out to the upside from the one-year falling wedge.

  • Traders’ Sentiment

    More and more traders consider the dip in USD/CHF to be overstretched. Accordingly, the share of long positions grew from 72% up to 74%. At the same time, the demand for the buck is likely to increase even more in the future, as 79% of orders set on the pair are to acquire the U.S. Dollar against the Franc.

This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.

Recommended Content


Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE

EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday

GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance. 

GBP/USD News

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed

Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed

Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited. 

Gold News

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern

Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.

Read more

Key events in developed markets next week

Key events in developed markets next week

Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures