Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar offered little for investors throughout trade on Friday failing to recover the losses suffered on the back of shrinking private capital expenditure and an improved U.S. core inflation read. Bouncing along within a 60 point range for much of the day investors appeared to be marking time in the lead up to key US data sets. Better than expected preliminary GDP and consumer sentiment reports forced the Aussie back toward the 0.78 cent handle closing the week in familiar territory. Attentions shift to the RBA and its second policy meeting for 2015. With the majority of analyst calling for stability there are some economists suggesting a 2nd consecutive rate cut is an inevitability. The unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, wage growth is at its lowest level in 17 years and employment growth has weakened. Throw into the mix a softening mining sector and an inflated dollar and there is certainly room for RBA action. With little on the domestic docket to drive direction through trade on Monday the AUD will likely find support in China’s decision (Saturday) to cut its benchmark rate in a bid to improve growth while markets look to Manufacturing reports for further direction throughout trade.
- We expect a range today of 0.7620 – 0.7920
New Zealand Dollar:
Much like its trans-Tasman counterpart the New Zealand dollar failed to recoup the losses suffered throughout trade on Thursday edging marginally higher Friday to close the week just above 0.7550. Taking its cues from offshore data sets the NZD held up well in the face of stronger than anticipated U.S. fourth quarter GDP growth and consumer sentiment. With little domestic data on hand Monday direction will stem from offshore stimuli headlined by a Chinese HSBC manufacturing report with support derived from the Peoples Bank of China’s decision (Saturday) to cuts its benchmark rate in a bid to fuel growth.
- We expect a range today of 0.7450 – 0.7650
Great British Pound:
Sterling failed to recoup the losses suffered on Thursday offering little to spark investor’s imagination through trade on Friday. With little domestic data on hand the Pound took its cues from offshore stimuli edging lower into the close as better than anticipated U.S. fourth quarter GDP and consumer sentiment helped cement greenback gains. Attentions this week turn to a busy macroeconomic calendar headlined by the Bank of England’s policy announcement Thursday while the more immediate focus turns to Manufacturing PMI for direction through trade on Monday.
- We expect a range today of 1.9620 – 1.9950
Majors:
The US Dollar ended the week little changed Friday marking an eight straight monthly gain for the world’s base currency when measured against a basket of 6 major counterparts; as investors shrugged off a string of poor data sets throughout February on expectations the Fed will adjust its benchmark interest rate at some point this year. Preliminary fourth quarter GDP nudged above expectations writing in at 2.2% while consumer sentiment held near 8 year highs with investors’ expectations for consumer driven growth improving. Any advance was checked by a 13 point dip in Chicago PMI index and highlights an underlying vulnerability in the US manufacturing sector. It is however important to note that size of the depreciation hints at an anomaly with investors blaming poor weather, the closure of LA and Long Beach sea ports for delays in capital and a stronger dollar for decline in demand for US exports. Attentions this week turn to a raft of Central bank policy meetings with the Australian Reserve Bank, Canadian Central Bank, Bank of England and European Central Bank all due to release policy updates while Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report will be crucial in providing direction and governing expectations leading into the Fed’s March 17-18 assembly.
Data releases
- AUD: AIG Manufacturing Index, MI inflation Gauge, New Home Sales, Company Operating profits and Commodity Prices
- NZD: No Data
- JPY: Final Manufacturing
- GBP: Nationwide HPI, Manufacturing PMI, Met Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals and M4 Money Supply
- EUR: CPI Flash Estimates, Core CPI Flash Estimates and Unemployment Rate
- USD: Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing PMI
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD stays directed toward 0.6500 as RBA's Bullock speaks
AUD/USD is extending losses toward 0.6500 in Asian trading on Tuesday. The Aussie Dollar remains offered after the Reserve Bank of Australia extended the pause. Markets digest the less hawkish policy statement while Governor Bullock's press conference gets underway.
USD/JPY recaptures 150.00 after the expected BoJ rate hike
USD/JPY extends gains to regain 150.00, as the Japanese Yen stays vulnerable amid a classic 'sell the fact' trading on the hawkish BoJ decision. The BoJ lifted the interest rate by 10 basis points (bps) from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007 and abandoned the YCC framework.
Gold price hangs near one-week low, looks to Fed decision on Wednesday for fresh impetus
Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the $2,145 region and oscillates in a range during the Asian session on Tuesday. Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US bond yields and a bullish USD cap the upside.
Bitcoin price shows weakness, but new BTC whales have created solid support at $56,400
Bitcoin price downside momentum continues to gain strength, giving sidelined and late bulls a chance to buy the dip. The market remains focussed on the oncoming halving, expected to kick off the next bull cycle.
Lots of tension ahead of this week's Fed decision
Last week, we got a strong round of US economic data accompanied by hotter US inflation reads. The takeaway of course is that there might be a lot more pressure on the Fed to be looking to scale back its rate cut outlook at this week’s meeting.