AUD stronger ahead of notable Greenback test

Australian Dollar:

Expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve Statement were left unfulfilled overnight with US Policy Makers instead painting a relatively hawkish picture in particular noting that the underutilization witnessed throughout the labour market had significantly improved. Whilst marking the official end to quantitative easing investors took the opportunity to jump on the world’s reserve currency with the prevailing strength of the US dollar causing collateral damage across the board. Having initially reached a late session high of 0.8910 when valued against its US Counterpart the Australian dollar crumbled to an eventual low of 0.8775, a stunning reversal given the build up to one of the most important policy meetings of this calendar this year. Opening 70 basis point lower than the same corresponding period yesterday the Australian dollar currently buys 87.80 US Cents

• We expect a range today of 0.8740 – 0.8810

New Zealand Dollar:

In what has been a frantic 24 hour period the Federal Reserve’s decision to end bond purchases whilst softening its language over labour market concerns has seen the New Zealand dollar lose significant value when compared to its US Counterpart overnight. Slumping to an early morning low of 0.7767 (a staggering 130 basis points below yesterday’s peak), RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has also been the catalyst for a weaker Kiwi after the official cash rate was left on hold at 3.5 percent. Signalling also that the prospect of higher interest rates has diminished off the back of stagnant inflation the attractiveness of the Kiwi at least from a carry perspective has been diminished as a result. Weaker upon open this morning the New Zealand dollar currently buys 77.83 US Cents. 

• We expect a range today of 0.7750 – 0.7820

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound has tested critical support levels close the 1.6000 mark when valued against its US Counterpart having lost comfortably more than one full US Cent following the Federal Reserve’s announcement on existing monetary policy settings. Opening very close to its overnight low at 1.6005 it has been the more upbeat tone when referencing US labour market conditions that has caused the majority of the US Dollar gains. In what’s set to be a similar session this evening dominated by macro and policy developments from the US, Sterling direction for the time being remains at the mercy of offshore activity. Whilst lower against the Greenback the Sterling is marginally stronger against the Aussie (1.8226) and significantly stronger against the Kiwi (2.0551)

• We expect a range today of 1.8180 – 1.8280

Majors:

After six years of unprecedented monetary stimulus the US Federal Reserve announced overnight that its quantitative easing program would come to end whilst retaining its existing language surrounding future interest rates rises stating that rates would not rise for “a considerable time” after the end of QE. With the accompanying statement painting an improved employment outlook, overall the tone and the markets reaction were substantially more hawkish than what had been anticipated. Rallying across the board the US dollar is stronger against all of its major counterparts with US Stocks and US treasuries declining. Opening stronger against the Yen this morning at a rate of 108.936 the Euro has struggled opening a full one percent lower at 1.2633. In addition developments which have the clout to further move the US dollar investors will now be eyeing advanced GDP figures scheduled for release this evening.

Data releases

• AUD: Import Prices q/q
• NZD: Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement
• JPY: No data today
• GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m
• EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, Spanish Flash GDP y/y, German unemployment change, Italian 10-y Bond Auction 
• USD: Advance GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Fed Chair Yellen Speaks