AUD continues to fall as strong Chinese data not enough

Australian Dollar:

Positive Chinese numbers helped boost the Australian dollar on Tuesday after a night where the higher yielding currency was heavily sold off. Recent concerns over the health of China’s economy have surfaced lately due to speculation over downgrading of growth expectations and as China is Australia’s largest trading partner this has been concerning. Just before midday the market witnessed as expansionary HSBC flash manufacturing numbers were released and this was taken in an optimistic light, leading the AUD above the US89 cent threshold. Overnight strong manufacturing data halted the Aussie’s rally and the AUD opens this morning weaker at 0.8841. The CB leading index will be announced early today which is designed to predict the direction of our economy and just after the RBA’s financial stability review should show current economic conditions and risks.

• We expect a range today of 0.8800 – 0.8885

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar struggled to gain momentum on Tuesday however did manage to marginally strengthen after positive Chinese data was released just after midday. The higher yielding currency has had recent concerns over the slowdown in China’s growth and these upbeat figures are a positive sign as China is one of New Zealand’s largest trading partners. Overnight upbeat US manufacturing data put a stop to the Kiwi rally as the Greenback was higher across the board. The NZD opens this morning lower at 0.8064 while today investors will watch the NZ trade balance closely for direction.

• We expect a range today of 0.8020 – 0.8110

Great British Pound:

The market watched last night as focus returned to the United Kingdom’s monetary policy outlook once more since the Scottish referendum failed to pass. The Sterling gained touching highs of 1.6412 against the Greenback however weak domestic data slowed the rally. Increasing public sector net borrowing and slightly softer than forecast mortgage approvals halted gains, as the cable opens this morning stronger at 1.6388. In a similar move against the higher yielding currencies the GBP climbed against the AUD(1.8529) and NZD(2.0334). Today there is no data being released locally in the UK as investors turn offshore for direction.

• We expect a range today of 1.8480 – 1.8570

Majors:

Despite Eurozone data once again disappointing the Euro climbed against the Greenback during Tuesday’s trade. Investors looked to be taking recent profits as the USD was sold off after a recent run of strong gains. A string of soft manufacturing numbers from the Eurozone put the European economy on schedule for a 0.3 percent growth in Q3 this year. The slowdown is likely to have follow on affects to future growth and this resinates from Draghi’s speech on Monday with regards to “risks for further downturn”. Elsewhere US markets saw upbeat manufacturing data reaching the highest levels since early 2010. Investors tonight will turn to Germany’s business climate and new home sales in the US for guidance.

Data releases:

• AUD: CB Leading Index m/m, RBA Financial Stability Review
• NZD: Trade Balance
• JPY: Flash Manufacturing PMI
• GBP: No Data
• EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Belgian NBB Business Climate
• USD: New Home Sales, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Mester Speaks