Australian Dollar:
Following on from a week where US dollar strength and falling commodity prices saw the Australian dollar heavily sold off, the AUD struggled to gain momentum on Monday. The higher yielding currency moved within a tight range against the Greenback during Asian trade. As European and US investors began their week the Aussie was heavily sold off dropping as low as 0.8855 before disappointing housing data out of the US softened the fall. This morning the AUD opens half a percent lower at 0.8872 and with no data locally Chinese manufacturing and US numbers will provide direction.
- We expect a range today of 0.8830 – 0.8910
New Zealand Dollar:
The New Zealand dollar opened Monday stronger against the Greenback as the National party was re-elected over the weekend to their 3rd straight term. Data early on printed the Westpac consumer sentiment as optimistic, reading 116.7 which fuelled the Kiwi further, reaching highs of 0.8168. As the European and US markets began to trade Greenback strength was prominent and the Kiwi dropped just below the US81 cent handle. Weak US numbers released later on helped the NZ dollar marginally recover to open this morning weaker at 0.8119. Investors today will turn their attention to the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Index from China scheduled for release early this afternoon.
- We expect a range today of 0.8080 – 0.8160
Great British Pound:
The British Pound continued to strengthen against the Greenback on Monday after polls on Friday showed Scotland will remain in the UK. The gains were limited as demand for the USD continued to be supported in the market on the notion the US Federal Reserve will hike rates earlier than anticipated. The Sterling opens this morning stronger verse the US at 1.6357 and moved in a similar fashion against the higher yielding AUD(1.8440) and NZD(2.0161). Today will see mortgage approvals and public sector net borrowing announced in the UK. These releases are leading indicators for the housing market and budget figures providing great insight into the strength of the UK economy.
- We expect a range today of 1.8395 – 1.8485
Majors:
The Euro opens this morning marginally stronger against the US dollar at 1.2846. Giving up the majority of gains made during Asian trade the Euro fell after ECB president Mario Draghi inferred the economic recovery in the Eurozone is “losing momentum”. He mentioned the GDP slowdown in the second quarter of the year and discussed how inflation will remain low over the coming months. Speaking also about the unconventional measures policy makers may need to put in place to help spur improved economic performance, heightened stimulus measures threaten to weigh heavily on the 18-nation Euro over the longer-term. Elsewhere US dollar strength was witnessed early fuelled by expectations the Fed will consider an early rate rise however soft housing data stopped the rally short. Although there is data out of the US tonight the focus for investors will be on high impact manufacturing data from the Eurozone.
Data releases:
- AUD: No data
- NZD: No data
- JPY: Bank Holiday
- GBP: BBA Mortgage Approvals, Public Sector Net Borrowing
- EUR: French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Glash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI
- USD: FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks, HPI m/m, FOMC Member Powell Speaks, Flash manufacturing PMI, Richmond Manufacturing Index
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