Aussie recovers from 4 year lows after US data disappoints

Australian Dollar:

The Australian dollar settled into a range in the low US85 cent area during early trade on Wednesday. Coming off a night of heavy losses investors bought into the Aussie believing the higher yielding currency was oversold leading the AUD to reach highs of 0.8559 against the Greenback. Construction work statistics were released just before midday and the figures disappointed sending the Aussie back down towards the daily opens. Trade was fairly flat for the remainder of the day with not much to provide volatility as investors waited on an array of overnight high impact data for guidance. As the European session began the Aussie was brutally sold off reaching 4 year lows of 0.8481 however weaker than expected US data over night helped the AUD rally back opening stronger this morning at 0.8553. All eyes today will be on the Private capital expenditure numbers released early on which should offer direction heading towards the weekend.

• We expect a range today of 0.8515 – 0.8605

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar spent another day of trade with no local data to provide direction moving primarily on market sentiment. Investors bought into the higher yielding currency early on as the Kiwi moved upwards from the daily open touching highs of 0.7833. As trade continued the development flattened out with onlookers appearing to be sitting on the fence waiting for overnight US data releases. The numbers sparked movement as expected and the Kiwi took full advantage rallying over a per cent as US data missed the mark. The Kiwi opens this morning stronger against the Greenback at 0.7880 with an early domestic trade balance release to set the NZ dollar on its course for the remainder of the day.

• We expect a range today of 0.7840 – 0.7920

Great British Pound:

The British Pound posted less than desirable growth numbers on Wednesday bringing the Sterling lower across the board in early trade. The data was quickly overshadowed by unexpectedly weak US economic reports released later on helping the GBP regain all of the lost ground and more as the Greenback was sold off heavily across the board. Cable opens this morning over 50 points stronger at 1.5799 and the GBP is in a similar position against the higher yielding AUD at 1.8486. The NZ dollar held its ground overnight and took back some of the weeks earlier losses as the GBP/NZD cross weakened by a just under a per cent to 2.0046. Today there is no local data being released from the UK however the European docket is full with German preliminary CPI the highlight of the session. 

• We expect a range today of 1.8430 – 1.8510

Majors:

Once again the US economic indicators took centre stage last night overshadowing the minor European releases to give direction to the markets. The statistics surprised to the downside leading the Greenback to be sold off heavily across a basket of major currencies. Core durable goods orders were down nearly a percent while the labour department announced the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits increased to 313,000 from a previous number of 292,000 and forecast of 287,000. Personal spending and income were also lower than expected with Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment similarly missing the mark. The icing on the cake was housing numbers showing pending home sales falling and new home sales increasing substantially less than anticipated. While the markets are envisaging an interest rate rise by the US in 2015 continuing mixed data from the US will need to steady otherwise the timetable will be continually pushed further and further back. The European markets will have their moment in the limelight tonight with German preliminary CPI the highlight.

Data releases: 

• AUD: HIA New Home Sales m/m, Private Capital Expenditure q/q
• NZD: Trade Balance
• JPY: No Data
• GBP: No Data
• EUR: German Prelim CPI m/m, Spanish Flash CPI y/y, German Unemployment Change, M3 Money Supply y/y, Private Loans y/y, Italian 10-y Bond Auction, Spanish HPI q/q GfK German Consumer Climate
• USD: No Data