Profit taking halts USD rally ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Australian Dollar:

Reaching the lowest level seen this week the Australian dollar touched a low of 0.9234 when valued against its US Counterpart giving the impressive intraday that critical support levels around the 0.9220 mark may well be breached. Offering an explanation for the selloff the HSBC Manufacturing PMI Index missed expectation with the read of 50.3 falling short of the forecasted read of 51.5. With US dollar strength being the predominant theme this week off the back of improved housing, manufacturing and employment numbers the Australian dollar recovered as it entered offshore markets hinting that the move back into the world’s reserve currency may have been prematurely overdone. Doing well to recover its losses the Aussie opens at a very familiar level this morning as it is buys 93.01 US Cents  

• We expect a range today of 0.9270 – 0.9330

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar managed to recoup some of the week’s early losses throughout the European and North American sessions Thursday.  Regaining 0.84 the Kiwi was driven higher as investors took to a run of profit taking, selling USD ahead of today’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The assembly of Central Bank Heads in Jackson has been dubbed a key directional event in affirming the US Federal Reserve’s stance, offering crucial insight into diverging central bank policies. With little domestic data available investor attentions will be solely focussed on the upcoming meeting and any hawkish rhetoric from Janet Yellen will likely drive the Kiwi lower to close the week.   

• We expect a range today of 0.8280 – 0.8480

Great British Pound:

The Great British Pound has remained out of favour with investors over the past 24 hours with UK Retail Sales data from July falling short of expectation. Increasing by a mere 0.1 percent last month a separate report also showed that Britain had posted a notable budget shortfall in July with net borrowing reaching 764 million pounds. Casting an even larger shadow the Great British Pound has been sold across the board lower this morning against the US Dollar (1.6578), Australian Dollar (1.7823) and New Zealand Dollar (1.9722).  

• We expect a range today of 1.7780 – 1.7850

Majors:

The Greenback surrendered recent gains yesterday as investors take stock ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium and convergence of Central Bank heads today. Both Fed President Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi are due to address gathered officials in what investors have dubbed a key directional event. Wednesday’s Fed minutes inferred the U.S Central Bank has shifted toward a hawkish bias and Yellen’s speech is critical in affirming the change in stance. Dipping lower against most major counterparts markets largely ignored stable employment data and strong manufacturing numbers. By all rights the Dollar should have consolidated gains yesterday instead it has served to hone market focus and highlights the importance placed on today’s outcome. A hawkish Yellen tone should see the Greenback rally again gather pace. Euro found some support yesterday bouncing back from 11 month lows on stronger than expected German Private-sector growth and stable manufacturing. EUR/USD opens this morning at 1.3281 as focus turns to Jackson Hole and signs of furthering Central Bank divergence.

Data releases

• AUD: Jackson Hole Symposium
• NZD: No data today     
• JPY: No data today
• GBP: No data today
• EUR: ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
• USD: Fed Chair Yellen Speaks