Australian Dollar:
The Australian dollar has been in a defiant mood throughout the course of this week maintaining its upward trajectory in the face of weak economic numbers from China as well rumours that the US will start to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. Trading in a range of 0.9118 – 0.9173 over the past 24 hours when valued against its US Counterpart, the Australian dollar continues circulate around the 0.9160 mark upon open this morning, very close to its highest level this year. Now trading well above its average this year of 0.8947 investors will be tuning in to comments from Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens as he speaks at the Credit Suisse Investment Conference in Hong Kong this afternoon. Having previously stated policy makers would rather an Aussie below the 90 US Cents mark, some aggressive language in favour of a lower currency may be forthcoming.
- We expect a range today of 0.9100 – 0.9190
New Zealand Dollar
Broader risk flows have boosted demand for the New Zealand dollar over the past 24 hours with a very light economic calendar leaving the Kiwi vulnerable to global risk sentiment. Whilst leaders of the world’s top seven industrialised nations, known as the G7 met last night to discuss a list of possible sanctions against Russia, in general the lack news this week has been viewed as good news. With global stocks all pointed in an upward direction the Kiwi followed trading to an overnight high of 0.8587 when valued against the US dollar. 0.4 percent stronger this morning the New Zealand dollar currently buys 85.73 US Cents.
- We expect a range today of 0.8530 – 0.8600
Great British Pound:
The Great British Pound was well supported overnight after figures showed Consumer prices rose by an annual pace of 1.7 percent. Whilst matching forecasts and leading to gains worth 30 basis points for the Sterling when valued against the dollar, there has been murmurings across markets of late that the Sterling’s upside may be limited with traders already having priced in an interest rate rise from the BOE in early 2015. Reaching highs of 1.6548 the Great British Pound opens stronger this morning at a rate 1.6527.
- We expect a range today of 1.8000 – 1.8070
Majors:
The US dollar rebounded overnight after European Central Bank governing council member Jens Weidmann argued that negative interest rates would be more effective in reducing the appeal of the Euro as policy makers seek a lower currency to help fight off deflationary fears. Whilst the ECB may be forced into more non-standardised measures, from an investment perspective traders maintain that as long as the Euro keeps its head up above the 1.3500 mark versus the dollar a bearish channel will not be avoided. Opening this morning in familiar territory the shared unit swaps hands at a rate of 1.3822. In other happenings overnight consumer confidence in the world’s largest economy hit a six month high with the Conference Board’s Index rising to 82.3 in March from 78.3 a month earlier. In what’s shaping up as a relatively quiet 24 hour window the US dollar has every opportunity to continue its moderate appreciation ahead of core durable goods figures, due for release this evening.
Data releases
- AUD: RBA Deputy Gov Lowe Speaks, RBA Financial Stability Review, RBA Gov Steven’s Speaks
- NZD: No data today
- JPY: CSPI y/y
- GBP: No data today
- EUR: GfK German Consumer Climate
- USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m
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