The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data also missed to the downside

EUR/USD Daily as of April 22nd, 2013

Resistance Levels:

1.3400

1.3300

1.3200

1.3125

Support Levels:

1.3000

1.2965

1.2883

Price action summary for last week:

The pair traded last week in a 200 pip range, opening the week at 1.3095, trading as high as 1.3200, as low as 1.3000 and closing the week at 1.3056. On the week, the pair closed 39 pips below it’s open. The close was outside an upward sloping channel that has been forming on the last few weeks. It is still above the larger channel that I spoke about on April 9th. As you can see, the close about the top of that channel did lead to a bullish market for the last two weeks, most of which was reversed in one bad day, including a test of that top of the channel trendline, right at 1.3000 on April 17th. On the downside from here, I would expect some support to come from another touch of the top of that downward sloping trendline. That support will likely come between 1.3000 down to 1.2950.

Fundamental news that came out last week was largely inline with expectations.
The major misses were the TIC Flows which came in at $17.8B versus an expectation of $41.3B. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment data also missed to the downside, coming in at 36.3 versus 42.0 expected as well as the German ZEW Current Situation data missing with 9.2 versus 12 expected. Although the pair attempted to rally later in the week it closed down for the week, a potentially bearish sign.



This week so far has seen the pair trading a bit lower as well. As long as we’re above the channel top, I’m not comfortable going either way on this pair although it does look more bearish than bullish in it’s current chart condition. I’m waiting for the test of the top of the previous channel and then will switch to shorter term charts to see what they look like for a day trade or swing trade setup.

Fundamentals to watch this week:

This is a very light week for for high impact fundamentals affecting this pair. The biggest USD news of the week will be the GDP number on Friday.

If anything out of expectations develops I will post new updates.

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