Jim Devonport
Compass Global Markets
Daily Currency Market Report – 11th July 2014
The market in brief:
• Aussie and Kiwi Dollars recover from earlier dip
• Australian Unemployment rate back at 6%
• Chinese Trade Balance falls
• Bk of England keep interest rates at 0.5%
• UK Trade Balance widens
• US Weekly Unemployment Claims fall
Market moving events for the next 24 hours:
• NZ Food Price Index
• Australian Home Loans
• Canadian Unemployment (exp. 7%)
AUDUSD:
The Australian Dollar took an early session tumble as the domestic unemployment situation resulted in the official rate ticking up to 6% and as the Chinese Trade Balance fell slightly. However as has been the case for the past 3 months at least, any dip in price action for this pair is shallow and instantly taken advantage of by exporters and investors chasing the higher interest rates on offer here. It is a very light data ahead with just the Australian Home Loans picture due for release later this morning and nothing at all due from the US. We’d therefore see us continue to hold these elevated levels and patiently wait for next weeks expected push higher.
AUDEUR:
The Australian Dollar traded a similar picture here with the Asian session providing all the action and then the Europeans coming in to reverse the initial sell off. Italian and French Industrial Production data disappointed and therefore assisted with the recovery. There is no data of interest due this evening so we’d expect the overnight range to cap and therefore set our days targets for importers and exporters.
AUDGBP:
The AUD didn’t quite manage to trade back to its early Asian session highs. The move was a little surprising considering a weaker UK Trade Balance number and the Bank of England keeping interest rates on hold at the record low of 0.50%. There is no UK data set for release this evening, so we’d expect a quieter and stable end to the week.
AUDNZD:
The Tasman Cross pushed lower again and tested the long term upward channel as Australian and Chinese numbers came out weaker than expected. We feel it is only a matter of time until the market starts to price in the future Australian interest rate hikes and with no upbeat NZ data recently cannot see why the upward channel should give way.
Friday Funny: I never wanted to believe that my Dad was stealing from his job as a road worker. But when I got home, all the signs were there.
Alternative Currency Hedging: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away if the rate improves or if not required.
Referrals: Client referrals are very important to our business. If you know of any contacts that can benefit from our comprehensive range of international currency transfer services, please do not hesitate to contact me. I’d be glad to assist.
Jim Devonport
Corporate & High Net Worth Client Manager
Open An Account
Sydney | Melbourne | Perth | Auckland | Zhuhai
Mobile: +61 415 066 468
Phone: +61 2 9283 9792
Direct: +61 2 8039 1485
Aust Free: 1300 BEST FX (2378 39)
Address: Suite 33, Level 3
World Square, 650 George St
Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
www.compassmarkets.com
The market in brief:
• Aussie and Kiwi Dollars recover from earlier dip
• Australian Unemployment rate back at 6%
• Chinese Trade Balance falls
• Bk of England keep interest rates at 0.5%
• UK Trade Balance widens
• US Weekly Unemployment Claims fall
Market moving events for the next 24 hours:
• NZ Food Price Index
• Australian Home Loans
• Canadian Unemployment (exp. 7%)
AUDUSD:
The Australian Dollar took an early session tumble as the domestic unemployment situation resulted in the official rate ticking up to 6% and as the Chinese Trade Balance fell slightly. However as has been the case for the past 3 months at least, any dip in price action for this pair is shallow and instantly taken advantage of by exporters and investors chasing the higher interest rates on offer here. It is a very light data ahead with just the Australian Home Loans picture due for release later this morning and nothing at all due from the US. We’d therefore see us continue to hold these elevated levels and patiently wait for next weeks expected push higher.
AUDEUR:
The Australian Dollar traded a similar picture here with the Asian session providing all the action and then the Europeans coming in to reverse the initial sell off. Italian and French Industrial Production data disappointed and therefore assisted with the recovery. There is no data of interest due this evening so we’d expect the overnight range to cap and therefore set our days targets for importers and exporters.
AUDGBP:
The AUD didn’t quite manage to trade back to its early Asian session highs. The move was a little surprising considering a weaker UK Trade Balance number and the Bank of England keeping interest rates on hold at the record low of 0.50%. There is no UK data set for release this evening, so we’d expect a quieter and stable end to the week.
AUDNZD:
The Tasman Cross pushed lower again and tested the long term upward channel as Australian and Chinese numbers came out weaker than expected. We feel it is only a matter of time until the market starts to price in the future Australian interest rate hikes and with no upbeat NZ data recently cannot see why the upward channel should give way.
Friday Funny: I never wanted to believe that my Dad was stealing from his job as a road worker. But when I got home, all the signs were there.
Alternative Currency Hedging: Ask us about a great alternative to traditional forward contracts that give the ability to cover at attractive levels, but with the flexibility to walk away if the rate improves or if not required.
Referrals: Client referrals are very important to our business. If you know of any contacts that can benefit from our comprehensive range of international currency transfer services, please do not hesitate to contact me. I’d be glad to assist.
Jim Devonport
Corporate & High Net Worth Client Manager
Open An Account
Sydney | Melbourne | Perth | Auckland | Zhuhai
Mobile: +61 415 066 468
Phone: +61 2 9283 9792
Direct: +61 2 8039 1485
Aust Free: 1300 BEST FX (2378 39)
Address: Suite 33, Level 3
World Square, 650 George St
Sydney NSW 2000, Australia
www.compassmarkets.com
Compass Global Markets Pty Ltd ("Compass Global Markets") ACN 144 657 885, Authorised Representative No. 377377, is a Corporate Authorised Representative of Calibre Investments Pty Ltd (Australian Financial Services License No. 337927). Please refer to the Financial Services Guide which is available through our website www.compassmarkets.com for more information regarding the financial services that we offer. All references to prices, amounts and currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted. This report is provided for Australian residents only and is not intended for use by residents of any other country. GENERAL ADVICE WARNING: The advice provided in this report has been prepared without taking into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to these matters and, if appropriate, seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. This report has been prepared for the general use of Compass Global Markets clients and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed to any other person. This report and its contents are not intended to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security, product or asset, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Compass Global Markets does not guarantee the performance of any investment discussed or recommended in this report. This report and the information used within may include estimates and projections which constitute a forward looking statement that express an expectation or belief as to future events, results or returns. No guarantee of future events, results or returns is given or implied by Compass Global Markets. Such statements are made in good faith and based on reasonable assumptions at the time of publication. However, such statements are also subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause actual results to differ substantially from the estimates and projections contained in this report or otherwise provided by Compass Global Markets. Any information referencing past performance is not indicative of future performance. All information in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate. Compass Global Markets does not give any representation or warranty as to reliability, accuracy or completeness of information contained in this report and therefore all responsibility is expressly disclaimed, whether due to negligence or otherwise. The information presented and opinions expressed in this report are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. We hereby disclaim any obligation to inform you of any changes after the date hereof in any matter set forth in this report. Global Compass Markets, its affiliate and their employees may hold positions in the financial products, or securities or derivatives of, in the companies referred to in this report from time to time. Analyst Certification: The views or opinions expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) and no part of the remuneration of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. Any views or opinions expressed are the author's own and may not reflect the views or opinions of Compass Global Markets unless specified otherwise.
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