Run on the dollar continues as GBP/USD pushes through 1.51

United States Dollar:

The dollar is weaker this morning, seeing GBP/USD push through 1.51. Soft US data on Thursday contributed to the run on the greenback, as unemployment claims, flash manufacturing PMI and new homes sales all printed below market expectations.
Meanwhile, some relatively positive news on Greece supported EUR/USD, which supported increased bids in cable; the headline yesterday read that Greece may be given a final reform extension window. In other news on Thursday - and counter to sterling’s move higher over the last 24 hours – UK retail sales data printed a lot weaker than market forecasts, showing that sales fell in March by 0.5% vs. expectations for a rise of 0.4%. Other data showed that the UK government failed to meet its borrowing forecasts as public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks was £87.3 billion. Both sets of data were shrugged off completely. The dollar continues to weaken, even as I type! Core durable goods are due from the States later this afternoon and if this prints weaker than expected it will look like a pretty unhappy ending to the week for the USD.

We expect a range today in the GBP/USD rate of 1.5050 to 1.5200.

Euro:

There’s been plenty of headlines on Greece over the last 24 hours as the country’s PM, Alexis Tsipras, met with German Chancellor Merkel to try to come up with an interim deal for another loan, in the hope that it will be signed off as Eurozone finance ministers meet today in Riga. The rhetoric was all fairly upbeat and the weak European PMIs released that morning were largely ignored. It also seems that Greece has managed to find enough cash to fulfil its salary and pension commitments for the end of April. With no official statement due during the round of meetings, the euro may be susceptible to various press reports and headlines over the next couple of days. It might also mean we see some large moves in euro cross rates come early Monday morning. EUR/USD opens considerably higher this morning, both on the back of a weaker dollar and the positive Greek headlines yesterday, whilst the run on the dollar continues. EUR/USD opens at 1.0875 and GBP/EUR trades at 1.3905 –much steadier by comparison.

We expect a range today in the GBP/EUR rate of 1.3855 to 1.3925.

Aussie and Kiwi Dollars:

The USD is weaker across the board and so both AUD/USD and NZD/USD are higher this morning at .7815 and .7580 respectively. There wasn’t any local data released out of Australia or NZ overnight and so USD flows have dictated the direction of both AUD/USD and NZD/USD. GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are both higher this morning and trade at 1.9385 and 1.9975.

We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9290 to 1.9440.

We expect a range today in the GBP/NZD rate of 1.9900 to 2.0060. 

Data releases for the next 24 hours:

AUD: No data

EUR: German Ifo Business Climate, Eurogroup Meetings

GBP: No data

NZD: No data

USD: Core Durable Goods Orders m/m