Good morning from Hamburg and welcome to our latest Daily FX Report. Asian shares rose on Thursday, shrugging off weak U.S. data overnight that raised concerns ahead of Friday's key employment figures, as investors covered positions ahead of the Easter holidays. Most U.S. markets will be closed on Friday, with some European markets closed Friday through Monday and reopening on Tuesday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up about 0.5 percent, ignoring modest overnight losses on Wall Street. Australian shares rose on growing expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its second rate cut of 2015 when it meets on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei stock average was up 1.3 percent, after skidding to a three-week low in the previous session.
However, we wish you a successful trading day!
Market Review – Fundamental Perspective
The dollar nursed modest losses on Thursday, having suffered a setback on fresh signs that the U.S. economy slowed significantly in the first quarter which could delay the Federal Reserve's decision to begin hiking interest rates.The dollar fell as far as 119.42 yen overnight, from levels above 120.00. It last fetched 119.57, down 0.2 percent on the day. In contrast to the United States, figures out of Europe were much more encouraging with manufacturing activity across the euro zone accelerating and adding to signs the bloc's economy is recovering. The euro climbed to $1.0800, from one-week lows of $1.0713. It last stood flat at $1.0764. Wariness over Greece's debt negotiations with lenders prevented the euro from making more gains. Among commodity currencies the Canadian dollar benefited from a jump in oil prices. But persistent weak iron ore prices kept its Australian counterpart under pressure, while a further fall in dairy prices weighed on the New Zealand dollar. The CAD last stood at C$1.2610 per USD, continuing to recover from this week's low of C$1.2784 per USD after oil jumped as much as 5 percent on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was down 0.3 percent at $0.7579, languishing near a six-year trough of $0.7561 as prices of iron ore, Australia's single biggest export earner, hit fresh lows. In commodities markets, Brent crude settled up 3.6 percent to $57.10 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 5.2 percent to $50.09. Government data showed U.S. crude inventories rose 4.8 million barrels in latest week. Fears of a bigger increase had been stoked a day earlier, when the American Petroleum Institute said stockpiles rose as much as 5.2 million barrels.
Daily Technical Analysis
EUREX.FDX (Daily)
Since April the German Index appreciated and even was able to break through the 10,000 points mark. Then we saw a downward movement and the DAX lost more than 1,500 points. In the last trading sessions the bulls took control over the Index and pushed it back first cleary over the 10,000 mark. The DAX has once again reached its alltime high and it remains to be seen whether the index has developed enough momentum in order to continue rising. According to the indicators there is still some room for more gains.
Support & Resistance (Daily)
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.