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Independent Analyst
The Dollar
The dollar's daily cycle peaked on day 13. The dollar then formed a swing high the next day, lost the 50 day MA as it begin to decline into its daily cycle low.
This past week the dollar back test the 200 MA before breaking lower. The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, which was day 25. That places the dollar late in its timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday's bullish reversal has eased the parameters for forming a swing low. A break above 95.19 will form a swing low and likely signal a new daily cycle and, as we will discuss on the weekly chart, quite possibly a new intermediate cycle.
The intermediate dollar cycle peaked in November, which was week 14. It went on to print its lowest point in early February. The February low was week 24, placing the dollar in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. But by breaking below the previous daily cycle low, the dollar extended its intermediate cycle decline which makes this week 29. At 29 weeks the dollar is deep in its timing band to print an intermediate cycle low. The odds are quite good that once a new daily cycle forms, it will also signal a new intermediate cycle as well.
Stocks
After a brief pause at the 200 MA, stocks powered higher through Friday.
The new high on Friday, on day 25, assures us of a right translated cycle formation and further verifies that 2/11 hosted an intermediate cycle low. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band, indicating that stocks remain in a daily uptrend.
This is week 5 for the new intermediate cycle and stocks closed above the declining weekly trend line. If stocks can close above the upper weekly cycle band that would indicate that February also was the yearly cycle low.
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