EUR/USD: holding on to gains, 1.1460 likely

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1352

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Investors resumed dollar's selling this Tuesday, and the American currency plummeted to fresh multi-month lows against most of its major rivals. The catalyst behind this move was a continued recovery in oil's prices, which fueled risk appetite, and therefore resulted in the USD plummeting. The EUR and the JPY underperformed due to their condition of funding currencies, but the common currency advanced up to the 1.3780 region and closed the day near its high, with solid gains.

Data came in mixed in Europe, and negative in the US, adding to the USD bearish case. The German ZEW survey showed an increase in the economic sentiment for the country, and the region, in April, although the assessment of the current situation fell, indicating that fears of a global economic slowdown persists. US housing data took a turn for the worst, as housing starts fell more than expected in March, plummeting 8.8% to 1.089 million, the lowest since October, whilst building permits declined by 7.7% to a 1.086 million annualized rate. 

As for the technical outlook of the EUR/USD pair, the lack of upward momentum is present ever since the day started, and continues ahead of the Asian opening, as in the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators hold well above their mid-lines, but with no directional strength. In the same chart, the price recovered above a now bullish 20 SMA, suggesting the rally may extend during the upcoming sessions, particularly if markets' mood remains positive. Nevertheless, seems unlikely the market will dare to push the pair beyond the 1.1460 region ahead of the ECB economic policy decision, next Thursday, with speculators expected to take profits out of the table on approaches to this last.

Support levels: 1.1335 1.1280 1.1235 

Resistance levels: 1.1420 1.1460 1.1500

 

EUR/JPY Current price: 124.10

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The Japanese yen's weakness has helped the EUR/JPY pair to rally to its highest in four weeks, as it reached 124.43, before poor US data helped the JPY to recover some ground, and sent the pair lower. Still holding above the 124.00 level, the pair is consolidating around the 38.2% retracement of the latest daily slump between 128.21 and 121.70, at 124.18, suggesting this latest upward corrective move can be merely corrective. Short term, the pair is headed lower, as in the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are retreating from extreme overbought territory, although the 200 SMA converges with the 23.6% retracement of the same rally at 123.25, indicating the price needs to extend below this last to resume its bearish trend. In the 4 hours chart, the RSI indicator is retreating from near overbought levels, whilst the Momentum indicator turned lower within positive territory, as the 100 SMA extended its decline below the 200 SMA above the current level, and providing a major resistance around 124.90, in the case of further advances.

Support levels: 123.80 123.35 122.70

Resistance levels: 124.45 124.90 125.30

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4393

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The GBP/USD pair advanced to a fresh April high of 1.4418, with the Pound buoyed ever since the day started as high yielders were back in vogue. The pair picked up pace early Europe, following the latest Brexit polls showing that those voting to remain within the EU are taking the lead, and accelerated further higher after US poor macroeconomic figures. The rally stalled at a major static resistance, a daily descendant trend line coming from February's high which stands around 1.4410, but so far, the pullback has been quite shallow, suggesting bulls are willing to break it towards the upside. Intraday technical readings are losing upward strength near overbought levels, rather reflecting the latest short term consolidative stage than suggesting that the upside is exhausted, but particularly referring to the 4 hours chart, the 20 SMA has rallied below the current level, surpassing its previous highs, and is currently aiming to cross above the 200 EMA, also anticipating the pair may rally further. If the market is able to push the pair through the trend line, the immediate target comes at 1.4458, March 30th high, whist additional gains beyond this last can take the  pair up to the 1.4510 region.  

Support levels: 1.4350 1.4315 1.4260 

Resistance levels: 1.4410 1.4460 1.4510

 

USD/JPY Current price: 109.02

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The American dollar gained against its Japanese rival this Tuesday, although the pair trimmed most of its daily gains early in the US session, weighed by  tepid US housing data. The USD/JPY pair rallied up to 109.48, and the following retracement held above the 109.00 level, as aggressive selling interest has been reduced on fears that the BOJ will act sooner or later to prevent the local currency from appreciating further. The Japanese Central Bank will have its monthly meeting by the end of April, and speculators have started pricing in some form of extension of the ongoing facilities. Nevertheless, there's a long run ahead before the pair can turn long-term bullish, as it will need to advance beyond 115.00 to confirm dollar's comeback. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price has bounced from a horizontal 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have lost directional strength around their mid-lines, following a strong correction from overbought levels and erasing the preceding bearish divergence. In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators have turned slightly lower within positive territory, whilst the price remains well below a bearish 100 SMA, currently around 110.10, indicating  that the downward risk is still present.

Support levels: 109.00 108.65 108.20 

Resistance levels: 109.50 110.00 110.40

 

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7813

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The Australian dollar extended its rally to a fresh year-high against its American rival, with the AUD/USD pair establishing above the 0.7800 level for the first time since June 2015. The release of the RBA meeting Minutes presented a twist, as the Central Bank stated that it is "appropriate for monetary policy to be very accommodative” with that "very" appearing for the first time this year, an implicit warning over current Aussie strength, as Governor Stevens has already warned  that policy makers are not comfortable with the latest advance of the local currency. The technical outlook is neutral-to-bullish in the 1 hour chart, as the technical indicators have turned well above their mid-lines, although the 20 SMA maintains a strong bullish slope below the current level. In the 4 hours chart, however, the pair presents a strong upward potential, as the Momentum indicator maintains a clear upward slope near overbought territory, and the RSI indicator heads north around 70, all of which supports some further gains. Retracements towards the 0.7720 region will likely attract buying interest, without affecting the ongoing bullish trend.

Support levels: 0.7790 0.7750 0.7720  

Resistance levels: 0.7820 0.7865 0.7905