EUR/USD: contained below 1.1300, downward risk persists

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1266

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD

The  American dollar was firmer once again, particularly against its European rivals, although the strong momentum of the currency seen on Wednesday receded. Asian share markets edged higher, but concerns over global growth returned after Singapore cut interest rates by surprise as growth stalled, leading to a poor performance in European and American indexes. 

Data coming from both shores of the Atlantic failed to motive investors, as most of price developments occurred before the macroeconomic releases. In Europe, attention focused in the final EU CPI for March, with the headline figure revised a notch higher to 0.0% year-on-year, the monthly reading unchanged at 1.2%, and  core inflation left unrevised at 1.0%. In the US, weekly unemployment claims fell to its lowest since 1978, printing 258K in the week ended April 8th, but inflation rose less-than-expected in  March, up by 0.1% monthly basis and by 0.9% compared to a year before. Soft inflation readings will keep the FED on hold for longer, when it comes to raising rates.

The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh 2-week low of 1.1233 early Europe, with the following bounce failing to extend beyond the 1.1300 level. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range for most of the American session, and holds around 1.1260. Technically, the 4 hours chart shows that the 20 SMA has accelerated its decline and now stands around 1.1340, whilst the technical indicators lack directional strength within oversold levels, far from supporting some additional gains for this Friday. Nevertheless, the pair needs to actually break below the 1.1200 to accelerate its decline, with scope now to extend down to 1.1120, a major static support zone. 

Support levels: 1.1235 1.1200 1.1160

Resistance levels: 1.1280 1.1330 1.1380 

 

EUR/JPY Current price: 122.96

View Live Chart for the EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY pair edged lower on Thursday, but remained confined to a limited intraday range as the EUR and the JPY moved in tandem against the greenback. The pair fell to a fresh weekly low of 122.71, a handful of pips below the previous one, and trades around 123.00 by the end of the day, with short term picture favoring additional declines, as in the 1 hour chart, the price remained contained by a horizontal 100 SMA, currently around 123.35, whilst the technical indicators remain flat below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the 100 SMA accelerated its decline above the 200 SMA, both far away from the current level in the 125.00 region, whilst the technical indicators hold below their mid-lines. Past week low of 122.50 is the key, as it will take a downward acceleration below it to confirm a continued decline to fresh lows below the 122.00 figure. 

Support levels: 122.50 122.00 121.60

Resistance levels: 123.35 123.60 124.10 

 

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4163

View Live Chart for the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair closed in the red for a second day in-a-row, although the pair trimmed most of its daily losses ahead of the close. Nevertheless, Pound´s negative tone prevails, and the BOE did little for the local currency. The Bank of England had its monthly meeting, in where it left its monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected. The bank rate was maintained at record lows of 0.5% and the size of the Asset Purchase Facility was kept at £375bn, with all of the nine MPC members voting for this. The Minutes showed that policy makers are concerned over the Brexit referendum, as is possible that  “referendum-related uncertainty would have a more pronounced effect on household sentiment and behavior as the vote drew nearer.”  From a technical point of view, the intraday recovery was not enough to revert the negative tone of the pair, given that in the 4 hours chart, the price remains well below its 20 SMA and 200 EMA, while the Momentum indicator keeps heading lower within negative territory. In the same chart, the RSI indicator has partially recovered, but remains around 46. The pair can gather some additional upward momentum if the recovery extends beyond 1.4240, while a decline below 1.4090 exposes the pair to test the 1.4000 critical figure. 

Support levels: 1.4130 1.4090 1.4050 

Resistance levels: 1..4185 1.4240 1.4285 

 

USD/JPY Current price: 109.17

View Live Chart for the USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair traded uneventfully this Thursday, briefly falling below the 109.00 level in the American afternoon, but it bounced back to the current 109.20 region, where it stood for most of the day. Poor US inflation data was behind that short-lived slide, but given the lack of reaction in stocks markets, the pair was unable to catch a firmer directional tone. The weekly recovery extended up to 109.54 during the past Asian session, as the JPY traded inversely to local share market, and the Nikkei was the largest daily winner among worldwide indexes. Anyway, and technically speaking the long term outlook for the pair is still bearish, as it will take at least a recovery above the 110.60 region to confirm an interim bottom took place in the 107.60 lows posted this month. Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a neutral tone, as the technical  indicators head higher right below their mid-lines, but the price remains stuck around a bearish 200 SMA.  In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators head higher within positive territory and after correcting overbought readings. Still, the 100 and 200 SMA head lower far above the current level, indicating advances will continue to be corrective.

Support levels: 108.90 108.40 107.95 

Resistance levels: 109.50 110.00 110.45

 

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7710

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair rallied to a fresh year high of 0.7736 during the American session, following the release of tepid US inflation figures. The Aussie was underpinned at the beginning of the day, after Australian employment data for March, beat expectations. According to official data, the economy created 26,100 new jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.7%, the lowest since September 2013. The pair retreated quickly from the level, but met buying interest around 0.7690, now the immediate short term support. In the 1 hour chart, the technical indicators are retreating from overbought territory, whilst the 20 SMA heads sharply higher well below the current level, suggesting the pair may retreat in a short-lived corrective move, but that the risk remains towards the upside. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is quite alike, with the 20 SMA heading north around 0.7650 and the indicators retreating within positive territory, but nowhere near to suggest a continued decline for this Friday.  

Support levels: 0.7690 0.7650 0.7610 

Resistance levels: 0.7735 0.7760 0.7800